Parity transition in Russia
Abstract
This paper analyzes how the parity transition in fertility occurred in Russia. Parity transition describes regular stages of change in concentration of reproduction. Concentration of reproduction (inequality of women's distribution in the final number of children born) is an important characteristic of fertility, especially in the context of its global decline. Using aggregate data from censuses, the 2015 microcensus, and expert estimates, we analyzed changes in concentration of reproduction for generations born in 1870-1976. The demographic Gini coefficient (an analogue of the popular income inequality measure) was used as a measure of concentration of reproduction.
We show that changes in the concentration of reproduction in Russia fit into the previously proposed N-shaped scheme of parity transition (Kalabikhina and Kuznetsova 2024), which makes it possible to distinguish three main stages: 1) the initial growth of concentration of reproduction within the first demographic transition and the period of catastrophes (generations born in 1870-1921); 2) the postwar decrease in heterogeneity due to the decrease in forced childlessness and the continued rejection of large families (generations born in 1921-1957); 3) the subsequent growth of concentration of reproduction within the second demographic transition (generations born in 1957-1976).
Decomposition of changes in heterogeneity makes it possible to identify which birth orders contributed to changes in the concentration of reproduction at different stages of the demographic transition. The initial increase in heterogeneity was due to a decrease in the contribution of high-order births and an increase in involuntary childlessness and low fertility during the catastrophic events of the first half of the 20th century. The post-war decrease in the concentration of reproduction for the generations born between 1921 and 1957 was due to decreased childlessness and continued modernization of fertility, which led to a final decline in the share of high-order births. The increase in the concentration of reproduction during the third stage of the parity transition (generations born in 1957-1976) occurred due to both the growth of childlessness within the second demographic transition and the establishment of the single-child family as a variant of the social norm in Russia.
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References
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