Темпы снижения рождаемости возрастают по всему миру: ловушка низкой рождаемости всё вероятнее?
Аннотация
Целью исследования является анализ повышения вероятности реализации модели ловушки низкой рождаемости по сравнению с другими моделями конвергенции рождаемости. Для этого сделаны обзоры основных теоретических представлений в демографии об очень низкой рождаемости, описания типов и моделей конвергенции рождаемости, оценки некоторых последствий реализации этого прогнозного сценария.
В исследовании используется международная база данных Института измерения показателей и оценки здоровья (IHME) по странам и зависимым территориям. Нами был проведен общий анализ трендов коэффициента суммарной рождаемости за 2020-2025 гг.; сделаны расчеты скорректированного коэффициента суммарной рождаемости методом Бонгаартса-Фини за 2020-2025 гг.; проанализированы прогнозные оценки коэффициента суммарной рождаемости и итоговой рождаемости реальных поколений, выполненные ведущими международными организациями, занимающимися долгосрочным демографическим прогнозированием рождаемости (IHME, IIASA и Отдел народонаселения ООН).
Выявлено, что с начала 2010-х годов произошло резкое возрастание темпов снижения рождаемости во всех без исключения государствах мира. Часть этого снижения в демографически развитых государствах может объяснено через новую волну постарения рождаемости (tempo-effect), происходит и снижение интенсивности самого деторождения (quantum-effect). Это явным образом показывает резкое увеличение вероятности реализации ловушки низкой рождаемости.
Прогнозы рождаемости IHME, IIASA и Отдела народонаселения ООН 2023-2024 гг. отражают тенденцию все более активного использования модели ловушки низкой рождаемости при описании возможного будущего рождаемости во всех странах мира. Это дает серьезные основания, чтобы считать, что этот прогнозный сценарий может стать наиболее вероятным для реализации среди всех моделей конвергенции рождаемости.
Скачивания
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