Демографическое будущее Китая

  • Юлия Андреевна Селиверстова Национальный Исследовательский Университет «Высшая Школа Экономики»
Ключевые слова: население КНР, уменьшение семьи, старение, падение рождаемости, урбанизация, трудовая миграция, политика ограничения рождаемости, демографический дивиденд

Аннотация

Статья посвящена прогнозу развития демографической ситуации в КНР до 2030 г. Дается характеристика текущих демографических изменений, таких как стремительное старение населения, снижение рождаемости, половой дисбаланс, трудовая миграция из села в город, активный процесс урбанизации. Показано, что острота существующих социальных вопросов во многом обусловлена политикой ограничения рождаемости в стране, проводившейся на протяжении 35 лет. Распространение малодетности и ценностей современной городской среды значительно изменили форму семьи и ее функции. При сохранении существующих тенденций население Китая в размере 1,4 млрд человек через 8 лет исчерпает потенциал к росту, начнется естественная убыль. При увеличении числа пожилых людей и высокой продолжительности жизни трудоспособное население будет сокращаться, еще сильнее уменьшится количество детей в возрасте до 14 лет. Окончание действия демографического дивиденда для экономического развития КНР сопряжено с ростом социальной напряженности. В ближайшие годы значительно возрастет нагрузка на систему городской прописки, социального обеспечения и здравоохранения. Для эффективного противодействия нарастающему кризису правительству страны необходимо уделить повышенное внимание решению проблем сельских жителей, реформированию системы пенсионного и медицинского страхования, укреплению института семьи, мерам по поддержке семей с детьми.

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Опубликован
2020-12-27
Как цитировать
Селиверстова, Ю. А. (2020). Демографическое будущее Китая . Демографическое обозрение, 7(4), 149-165. https://doi.org/10.17323/demreview.v7i4.12047
Раздел
Оригинальные статьи