Новый демографический переход: наибольший прирост продолжительности жизни в настоящее время происходит за счет старших возрастов

  • Карен Эгглстон Стэнфордский Университет
  • Виктор Фукс Стэнфордский Университет
Ключевые слова: новый демографический переход, переход в долголетии, ожидаемая продолжительность жизни, ожидаемая продолжительность трудовой деятельности


В начале XX века в США и 16 других сопоставимых по экономическому развитию странах снижение смертности в возрастах старше 65 лет обеспечивало лишь 20% общего прироста ожидаемой продолжительности жизни. В начале XXI века эта доля составляла уже 80%, асимптотически приближаясь к 100%. Этот новый демографический переход предвещает ослабление влияния роста дожития на продолжительность трудовой жизни. Для стран с высоким уровнем дохода, находящихся на переднем крае перехода в долголетии, доля ожидаемой продолжительности трудовой деятельности в процентах к ожидаемой продолжительности жизни снижается. Если общество хочет сохранить положительную взаимосвязь между ростом продолжительности жизни и ростом благосостояния, ему необходима новаторская политика.


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Как цитировать
Эгглстон, К., & Фукс, В. (2019). Новый демографический переход: наибольший прирост продолжительности жизни в настоящее время происходит за счет старших возрастов. Демографическое обозрение, 6(4), 128-182. https://doi.org/10.17323/demreview.v6i4.10430
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