Новый демографический переход: наибольший прирост продолжительности жизни в настоящее время происходит за счет старших возрастов
Аннотация
В начале XX века в США и 16 других сопоставимых по экономическому развитию странах снижение смертности в возрастах старше 65 лет обеспечивало лишь 20% общего прироста ожидаемой продолжительности жизни. В начале XXI века эта доля составляла уже 80%, асимптотически приближаясь к 100%. Этот новый демографический переход предвещает ослабление влияния роста дожития на продолжительность трудовой жизни. Для стран с высоким уровнем дохода, находящихся на переднем крае перехода в долголетии, доля ожидаемой продолжительности трудовой деятельности в процентах к ожидаемой продолжительности жизни снижается. Если общество хочет сохранить положительную взаимосвязь между ростом продолжительности жизни и ростом благосостояния, ему необходима новаторская политика.
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