Тенденции рождаемости в развитых странах в период пандемии COVID-19
Аннотация
В статье рассматривается динамика рождаемости в ряде развитых стран в период пандемии COVID-19. На основе данных Human Fertility Database о числе ежемесячных рождений (Short-Term Fertility Fluctuations) проводится анализ тенденций изменения числа рождений с 2000 г. по настоящее время, особое внимание уделено периоду с 2020 г. по первую половину 2021 г. В большинстве рассмотренных стран наблюдается ускоренное снижение рождаемости, которое началось в октябре-ноябре 2020 г. и продолжается в 2021 г. В Испании, Италии, Японии, Южной Корее, Латвии и России число рождений в декабре 2020 г. по сравнению с предыдущим годом в среднем снизилось на 8,03%, в январе 2021 г. – на 13,3%. Наиболее резкое снижение числа рождений среди рассмотренных стран наблюдалось в Испании: оно сократилось на 21,3% в декабре 2020 г. и на 20,8% в январе 2021 г. В ряде стран (Германия, Дания, Нидерланды, Венгрия) наблюдается увеличение числа рождений в период пандемии по сравнению со средним показателем за последние 5 и 10 лет. В некоторых странах (Испания, Италия) снижение числа рождений в период пандемии COVID-19 существенно выше снижения аналогичных показателей после предыдущих экономических или эпидемиологических кризисов. Экономическая и социальная нестабильность, начавшаяся в период пандемии, способствовала снижению числа рождений в развитых странах, которое особенно заметно в декабре 2020 – январе 2021 г. Однако в последствии число помесячных рождений постепенно возвращается к допандемическому уровню. Из этого можно сделать вывод, что влияние короновирусного кризиса на рождаемость в развитых странах, вероятно, будет краткосрочным.
Скачивания
Литература
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