Миграция и замещение поколений в Европе
Аннотация
Низкий уровень рождаемости в Европе уже на протяжении многих лет вызывает обеспокоенность и стимулирует важную дискуссию по вопросу, насколько миграция способна компенсировать рождаемость, находящуюся ниже уровня простого воспроизводства. Для оценки совместного влияния рождаемости, смертности и миграции на замещение рождений и поколений предложены разнообразные показатели. Эти индикаторы основаны на различных моделях и гипотезах, и для расчетов некоторых из них требуются детальные статистические данные. Мы предлагаем простой способ, позволяющий оценить вклад миграции в замещение рожденной когорты по мере ее взросления. Мы назвали эту меру итоговым индексом замещения (ИИЗ). Он рассчитывается как отношение численности рожденной когорты девочек в определенном возрасте к средней численности материнских когорт в год рождения девочек. Мы приводим оценки ИИЗ для ряда Европейских стран, имеющих различные режимы замещения поколений. Мы показываем, что за последние десятилетия во многих странах Европы миграция стала ключевым фактором, определяющим динамику населения.
Скачивания
Литература
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