Рождаемость в развитых странах: обзор исследований

  • Николетта Бальбо Университет Гронингена
  • Франческо Биллари Оксфордский Университет
  • Мелинда Миллс Университет Гронингена
Ключевые слова: календарь (тайминг) рождаемости, откладывание рождений, уровень рождаемости, низкая рождаемость, детерминанты рождаемости

Аннотация

Обзор исследований рождаемости в развитых обществах, т.е. обществах, в которых по умолчанию предполагается возможность контроля рождаемости. Главной целью статьи было представить всеобъемлющий обзор, который суммировал бы, как современные исследования объясняют текущие и прогнозируют будущие изменения рождаемости во времени и в пространстве (например, меж- и внутристрановые различия). Следующая задача состояла в том, чтобы проанализировать детерминанты рождаемости, группируя их в пределах того уровня, на котором они действуют: 1) уровень индивида и/или семейной пары (микроуровень); 2) уровень социальных связей и социальных сетей (мезоуровень); 3) уровень культурных и общественных институтов (макроуровень). В центре нашего внимания одновременно находится и уровень (quantum), и календарь (timing) рождаемости, особый акцент делается на откладывании деторождения. Обзор включает теоретические и эмпирические исследования с особым вниманием к результатам тех из них, которые подтверждают или опровергают существующие теоретические предсказания. Внимание уделяется также проблемам определения причинно-следственных связей и эндогенности. В заключительной части статьи представлен контур основных проблем и возможностей для будущих исследований.

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Опубликован
2017-10-13
Как цитировать
Бальбо, Н., Биллари, Ф., & Миллс, М. (2017). Рождаемость в развитых странах: обзор исследований. Демографическое обозрение, 4(2), 133-195. https://doi.org/10.17323/demreview.v4i2.7107
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Обзоры