Рождаемость в развитых странах: обзор исследований
Аннотация
Обзор исследований рождаемости в развитых обществах, т.е. обществах, в которых по умолчанию предполагается возможность контроля рождаемости. Главной целью статьи было представить всеобъемлющий обзор, который суммировал бы, как современные исследования объясняют текущие и прогнозируют будущие изменения рождаемости во времени и в пространстве (например, меж- и внутристрановые различия). Следующая задача состояла в том, чтобы проанализировать детерминанты рождаемости, группируя их в пределах того уровня, на котором они действуют: 1) уровень индивида и/или семейной пары (микроуровень); 2) уровень социальных связей и социальных сетей (мезоуровень); 3) уровень культурных и общественных институтов (макроуровень). В центре нашего внимания одновременно находится и уровень (quantum), и календарь (timing) рождаемости, особый акцент делается на откладывании деторождения. Обзор включает теоретические и эмпирические исследования с особым вниманием к результатам тех из них, которые подтверждают или опровергают существующие теоретические предсказания. Внимание уделяется также проблемам определения причинно-следственных связей и эндогенности. В заключительной части статьи представлен контур основных проблем и возможностей для будущих исследований.
Скачивания
Литература
Aassve A., F.C. Billari, Z. Spéder (2006). Societal transition, policy changes and family formation: evidence from Hungary // European journal of population. 22(2): 127–152.
Aassve A., F.C. Billari, R. Piccarreta (2007). Strings of adulthood: a sequence analysis of young British women’s work–family trajectories // European journal of population. 23(3–4): 369–388.
Aassve A., A. Goisis, M. Sironi (2011). Happiness and childbearing across Europe // Social indicators research: 1–22.
Adserà A. (2004). Changing fertility rates in developed countries. The impact of labor market institutions // Journal of population economics. 17: 17–43.
Adserà A. (2010). Where are the babies? Labor market conditions and fertility in Europe // European journal of population. 27(1): 1–32.
Adserà A. (2011). The interplay of economic uncertainty and education in explaining second births in Europe // Demographic research. 25(16): 513–544.
Agrillo C., C. Nelini (2008). Childfree by choice: a review // Journal of cultural geography. 25: 347–363.
Ahn N., P. Mira (2002). A note on the changing relationship between fertility and female employment rates in developed countries // Journal of population economics. 15: 667–682.
Ajzen I. (1991). The theory of planned behavior // Organizational behavior and human decision processes. 50(2): 179–211.
Amuedo-Dorantes C., J. Kimmel (2005). The motherhood wage gap for women in the United States: the importance of college and fertility delay // Review of economics of the household. 3: 17–48.
Andersson G., K. Hank, M. Rønsen, A. Vikat (2006a). Gendering family composition: sex preferences for children and childbearing behavior in the Nordic countries // Demography. 43(2): 255–267.
Andersson G., J.M. Hoem, A.Z. Duvander (2006b). Social differentials in speed-premium effects in childbearing in Sweden // Demographic research. 14(4): 51–70.
Anderton D.L., N.O. Tsuya, L.L. Bean, G.P. Mineau (1987). Intergenerational transmission of relative fertility and life course pattern // Demography. 24: 467–480.
Aparicio Diaz B., T. Fent, A. Prskawetz, L. Bernardi (2011). Transition to parenthood: the role of social interaction and endogenous networks // Demography. 48(2): 559–579.
Astone N.M., C.A. Nathanson, R. Schoen, Y.J. Kim (1999). Family demography, social theory, and investment in social capital // Population and development review. 25(1): 1–31.
Axinn W.G., M.E. Clarkberg, A. Thornton (1994). Family influences on family size preferences // Demography. 31: 65–79.
Bailey M.J. (2010). Momma’s got the pill. How Anthony Comstock and Griswold v. Connecticut shaped US childbearing // American economic review. 100(1): 98–129.
Baizán P., A. Aassve, F.C. Billari (2003). Cohabitation, marriage, and first birth: the interrelationship of family formation events in Spain // European journal of population. 19(2): 147–169.
Baizán P., A. Aassve, F.C. Billari (2004). The interrelations between cohabitation, marriage and first birth in Germany and Sweden // Population and environment. 25(6): 531–561.
Balbo N., M. Mills (2011). Social capital and pressure in fertility decision-making: second and third births in France, Germany and Bulgaria // Population studies. 65(3): 335–351.
Barber J.S. (2000). Intergenerational influences on the entry into parenthood: Mothers’ preferences for family and non-family behavior // Social forces. 79: 319–348.
Barber J.S. (2001). The intergenerational transmission of age at first birth among married and unmarried men and women // Social science research. 30: 219–247.
Becker G.S. (1960). An economic analysis of fertility // Demographic and economic change in developed countries / G.S. Becker, ed. Princeton: Princeton university press: 209–231.
Becker G.S., H.G. Lewis (1973). On the interaction between the quantity and quality of children // Journal of political economy. 81(2): 279–288.
Becker G.S., K.M. Murphy, R. Tamura (1990). Human capital, fertility, and economic growth // Journal of political economy. 98(5): 12–37.
Begall K., M. Mills (2011). The impact of perceived work control, job strain and work–family conflict on fertility intentions: a European comparison // European journal of population. 27(4): 433–456.
Begall K., M.C. Mills (2012). The influence of educational field, occupation, and occupational sex segregation on fertility in the Netherlands // European sociological review. doi:10.1093/esr/jcs051.
Behrman J.R., M.R. Rosenzweig (2002). Does increasing women’s schooling raise the schooling of the next generation? // American economic review. 92(1): 323–334.
Benjamin K. (2001). Men, women, and low fertility: analysis across time and country. Unpublished working paper: University of North Carolina.
Berent J. (1953). Relationship between family sizes of the successive generations // Milbank memorial fund quarterly bulletin. 31: 39–50.
Bernardi L. (2003). Channels of social influence on reproduction // Population research and policy review. 22: 527–555.
Bernardi L., R. White (2009). Close kin influences on fertility behaviour // Family, kinship and state in contemporary Europe / P. Heady, M. Kohli, eds. Perspectives on theory and policy. Vol.3. Frankfurt: Campus.
Bernardi L., S. Keim, H. von der Lippe (2007). Social influences on fertility: a comparative mixed methods study in eastern and western Germany // Journal of mixed methods research. 1: 23–47.
Bernhardt E., F. Goldscheider (2006). Gender equality, parenthood attitudes, and first births in Sweden // Vienna yearbook of population research, 2006: 19–39.
Berrington A. (2004). Perpetual postponers? Women’s, men’s and couple’s fertility intentions and subsequent fertility behavior // Population trends. 117: 9–19.
Billari F.C. (2001a). A log-logistic regression model for a transition rate with a starting threshold // Population studies. 55(1): 15–24.
Billari F.C. (2001b). A sickle transition rate model with starting threshold // Statistical methods and applications. 10: 139–155.
Billari F.C. (2004). Becoming an adult in Europe: A macro(/micro)-demographic perspective // Demographic research. 3(2): 13–44.
Billari F.C. (2009). The happiness commonality: fertility decision in low-fertility settings // How generations and gender shape demographic change / UNECE, ed. New York/Geneva: United Nations: 7–38.
Billari F.C., H.-P. Kohler (2004). Patterns of low and lowest-low fertility in Europe // Population studies. 58(2): 161–176.
Billari F.C., H.-P. Kohler, G. Andersson, H. Lundstro¨m (2007). Approaching the limit: long-term trends in late and very late fertility // Population and development review. 33: 149–170.
Billari F.C., D. Philipov (2004). Education and the transition to motherhood: a comparative analysis of Western Europe // European demographic research paper. 3. Vienna Institute of demography.
Billari F.C., D. Philipov, M. Testa (2009). Attitudes, norms and perceived behavioural control: explaining fertility intentions in Bulgaria // European journal of population. 25(4): 439–465.
Billari F.C., A. Goisis, A.C. Liefbroer, R.A. Settersten, A. Aassve, G. Hagestad et al. (2011). Social age deadlines for the childbearing of women and men // Human reproduction. 26(3): 616–622.
Billingsley S. (2010). The post-communist fertility puzzle // Population research and policy review. 29(2): 193–231.
Blossfeld H.-P., S. Drobnic (2001). Careers of couples in contemporary societies: a cross-national comparison of the transition from male breadwinner to dual earner families. Oxford: Oxford university press.
Blossfeld H.-P., J. Huinink (1991). Human capital investments or norms of role transition? How women’s schooling and career affect the process of family formation // American journal of sociology. 97: 143–168.
Blossfeld H.-P., E. Klijzing, M. Mills, K. Kurz (2005). Globalisation, uncertainty, and youth in society. London: Routledge.
Bongaarts J. (2001). Fertility and reproductive preferences in post-transitional societies // Population and development review. 27: 260–281.
Bongaarts J. (2002). The end of the fertility transition in the developed world // Population and development review. 28(3): 419–443.
Bongaarts J., G. Feeney (1998). On the quantum and tempo of fertility // Population and Development Review. 24: 271–291.
Bongaarts J., S. Watkins (1996). Social interactions and contemporary fertility transitions // Population and development review. 22(4): 639–682.
Bourdieu P. (1986). The forms of capital // Handbook of theory and research for the sociology of education / J.G. Richardson, ed. New York: Greenwood: 241–258.
Bramoullé Y., H. Djebbari, B. Fortin (2009). Identification of peer effects through social networks // Journal of econometrics. 150(1): 41–55.
Breen R. (1997). Risk, recommodification and stratification // Sociology. 31(3): 473–489.
Brien M.J., L.A. Lillard, L.J. Waite (1999). Interrelated family-building behaviors: Cohabitation, marriage, and nonmarital conception // Demography. 36(4): 535–551.
Bryant J. (2007). Theories of fertility decline and the evidence from development indicators // Population and development review. 33: 101–127.
Buber I., A. Prskawetz (2000). Fertility in second unions in Austria: findings from the Austrian FFS // Demographic research. 3(2).
Buchmann M.C., I. Kriesi (2011). Transition to adulthood in Europe // Annual review of sociology. 37: 481–503.
Bühler C., E. Fratczak (2007). Learning from others and receiving support: the impact of personal networks on fertility intentions in Poland // European societies. 9(3): 359–382.
Bühler C., D. Philipov (2005). Social capital related to fertility: theoretical foundations and empirical evidence from Bulgaria // Vienna yearbook of population research, 2005: 53–81.
Bumpass L., J. Sweet, A. Cherlin (1991). The role of cohabitation in declining rates of marriage // Demography. 53: 913–927.
Butler D. (2004). The fertility riddle // Nature. 432: 38–39.
Buttern T., W. Lutz (1990). Estimating fertility responses to policy measures in the German Democratic Republic // Population and development review. 16(3): 539–555.
Butz W.P., M.P. Ward (1979). The emergence of countercyclical U.S. fertility // The American economic review. 69(3): 318–328.
Caldwell J.C., T. Schindlmayr (2003). Explanations of the fertility crisis in modern societies: a search for commonalities // Population studies. 57(3): 241–263.
Caltabiano M. (2008). Has the fertility decline come to an end in the different regions of Italy? New insights from a cohort approach // Population. 63(1): 157–172.
Castles F.G., M. Ferrera (1996). Home ownership and the welfare state: is Southern Europe different? // South European society & politics. 1(2): 163–185.
Chesnais J.-C. (1996). Fertility, family, and social policy // Population and development review. 22(4): 729–739.
Christakis N.A., J.H. Fowler (2007). The spread of obesity in a large social network over 32 years // New England journal of medicine. 357(4): 370–379.
Cigno A., J. Ermisch (1989). A microeconomic analysis of the timing of first births // European economic review. 33: 737–760.
Cigno A., F.C. Rosati (1992). The effects of financial markets and social security on saving and fertility behaviour in Italy // Journal of population economics. 5(4): 319–341.
Cohen S.B., J.A. Sweet (1974). The impact of marital disruption and remarriage on fertility // Journal of marriage and family. 36: 87–96.
Cohen-Cole E., J.M. Fletcher (2008). Is obesity contagious? Social networks vs. environmental factors in the obesity epidemic // Journal of health economics. 27(5): 1382–1387.
Coleman J.S. (1988). Social capital in the creation of human capital // American journal of sociology. 94 (Supp): 95–120.
Cooke L.P. (2009). Gender equity and fertility in Italy and Spain // Journal of social policy. 38(1): 123–140.
Cooke L.P., J. Baxter (2010). ‘‘Families’’ in international context: comparing institutional effects across western societies // Journal of marriage and family. 72(3): 516–536.
Corijn M., E. Klijzing (2001). Transitions to adulthood in Europe. Dordrecht: Kluwer.
Corijn M., A.C. Liefbroer, J. De Jong Gierveld (1996). It takes two to tango, doesn’t it? The influence of couple characteristics on the timing of the birth of the first child // Journal of marriage and family. 58: 117–126.
Dalla Zuanna G. (2001). The banquet of Aeolus: a familistic interpretation of Italy’s lowest low fertility // Demographic research. 4(5): 133–162.
De Mouzon J., V. Goossens, S. Bhattacharya et al. (2010). Assisted reproductive technology in Europe, 2006: results generated from European registers by ESHRE // Human reproduction. 25: 1851–1862.
Del Boca D. (2002). The effect of child care on participation and fertility // Journal of population economics. 15(3): 549–573.
Dommermuth L., J.E. Klobas, T. Lappega°rd (2009). Now or later? The theory of planned behavior and fertility intentions. Dondena working paper. Milan: Carlo F. Dondena Centre for research on social dynamics.
Duncan O.D., R. Freedman, J.M. Coble, D.P. Slesinger (1965). Marital fertility and size of family of orientation // Demography. 2: 508–515.
Easterlin R.A. (1961). The American baby boom in historical perspective // American economic review. 51: 869–911.
Easterlin R.A. (1968). Population, labor force, and long swings in economic growth: the American experience. New York: Columbia university press.
Easterlin R.A. (1969). Towards a socioeconomic theory of fertility: a survey of recent research on economic factors in American fertility // Fertility and family planning: a world view / S.J. Behrman, L. Corsa Jr., R. Freedman, eds. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan press: 127–156.
Easterlin R.A. (1976). The conflict between aspirations and resources // Population and development review. 2(3): 417–425.
Entwisle B., R.R. Rindfuss, D.K. Guilkey, A. Chamratrithirong, S.R. Curran, Y. Sawangdee (1996). Community and contraceptive choice in rural Thailand: A case study of Nang Rong // Demography. 33: 1–11.
Ermisch J. (1999). Prices, parents, and young people’s household formation // Journal of urban economics. 45(1): 47–71.
Esping-Andersen G. (1990). The three worlds of welfare capitalism. Oxford: Polity press.
Esping-Andersen G. (1999). Social foundations of postindustrial economies. Oxford: Oxford university press.
Esping-Andersen G. (2009). The incomplete revolution: adapting welfare states to women’s new roles. Cambridge: Polity press.
Fernández R., A. Fogli (2006). Fertility: The role of culture and family experience // Journal of the European economic association. 4(2–3): 552–561.
Fernández R., A. Fogli. (2009). Culture: an empirical investigation of beliefs, work, and fertility // American economic journal: Macroeconomics. 1(1): 146–177.
Feyrer J., B. Sacerdote, A. Stern (2008). Will the stork return to Europe? Understanding fertility within developed nations // Journal of economic perspectives. Summer. 22(3): 3–22.
Flap H., B. Vo¨lker (2004). Creation and returns of social capital: a new research program. London: Routledge.
Fletcher J.M. (2011). Peer influences on adolescent alcohol consumption: evidence using an instrumental variables/fixed effect approach // Journal of population economics. doi:10.1007/s00148-011-0365-9.
Fokkema T., H. de Valk, J. de Beer, C. van Duin (2008). The Netherlands: childbearing within the context of a ‘‘Poldermodel’’ society // Demographic research. 19(21): 743–794.
Frejka T. (2008). Birth regulation in Europe. Completing the contraceptive revolution // Demographic research. 19: 73–84.
Frejka T., G.W. Jones, J.-P. Sardon (2010). East Asian childbearing patterns and policy developments // Population and development review. 36: 579–606.
Friedman D., M. Hechter, S. Kanazawa (1994). A theory of the value of children // Demography. 31: 375–401.
Furstenberg F.F.Jr, J.A. Levine, J. Brooks-Gunn (1990). The children of teenage mothers: patterns of early childbearing in two generations // Family planning perspectives. 22: 54–61.
Galasso V., R. Gatti, P. Profeta (2009). Investing for the old age: pensions, children and savings // International tax and public finance. 16(4): 538–559.
Gauthier A. (2007). The impact of family policies on fertility in industrialized countries: a review of the literature // Population research and policy review. 26: 323–346.
Gauthier A., J. Hatzius (1997). Family benefits and fertility: an econometric analysis // Population studies. 51: 295–306.
Gibson-Davis C.M., K. Edin, S. McLanahan (2005). High hopes but even higher expectations: the retreat from marriage among low-income couples // Journal of marriage and family. 67: 1301–1312.
Goldin C. (2006). The quiet revolution that transformed women’s employment, education, and family // American economic review. 96(2): 1–21.
Goldscheider F.K., L.J. Waite (1986). Sex differences in the entry into marriage // American journal of sociology. 92: 91–109.
Goldstein J., W. Lutz, M.R. Testa (2003). The emergence of sub-replacement family size ideals in Europe // Population research and policy review. 22(5): 479–496.
Goldstein J.R., T. Sobotka, A. Jasilioniene (2009). The end of lowest-low fertility? // Population and development review. 35(4): 663–700.
Granovetter M. (1973). The strength of weak ties // American journal of sociology. 78(6): 1360–1380.
Gustafsson S.S. (2001). Optimal age at motherhood. Theoretical and empirical considerations on postponement of maternity in Europe // Journal of population economics. 14(2): 225–247.
Gustafsson S.S. (2005). Having kids later. Economic analyses for industrialized countries // Review of economics of the household. 3(1): 5–16.
Hajnal J. (1965). European marriage patterns in perspective // Population in history / D.S. Glass, D.E.C. Eversley, eds. London: Edward Arnold: 101–143.
Hakim C. (2003). A new approach to explaining fertility patterns: Preference theory // Population and development review. 29(3): 349–374.
Hank K. (2001). Regional fertility differences in western Germany: an overview of the literature and recent descriptive findings // International journal of population geography. 7(4): 243–257.
Hank K. (2002). Regional social contexts and individual fertility decisions: a multilevel analysis of first and second births in western Germany // European journal of population. 18(3): 281–299.
Hank K., H.-P. Kohler (2000). Gender preferences for children in Europe: empirical results from 17 FFS countries // Demographic research. 2(1): 133–144.
Hank K., M. Kreyenfeld (2003). A multilevel analysis of child care and women’s fertility decisions in western Germany // Journal of marriage and family. 65(3): 584–596.
Happel S.K., J.K. Hill, S.A. Low (1984). An economic analysis of the timing of childbirth // Population studies. 38: 299–311.
Harknett K.S., C.S. Hartnett (2011). Who lacks support and why? An examination of mothers’ personal safety nets // Journal of marriage and family. 73(4): 861–875.
Harknett K., J. Knab (2007). More kin, less support: Multipartnered fertility and perceived support among mothers // Journal of marriage and family. 69(1): 237–253.
Harknett K., L. Hardman, I. Garfinkel, S.S. McLanahan (2001). The fragile families study: social policies and labor markets in seven cities // Children and youth services review. 23(6–7): 537–555.
Heaton T.B., C.K. Jacobson, K. Holland (1999). Persistence and change in decisions to remain childless // Journal of marriage and family. 61(2): 531–539.
Hendershot G.E. (1969). Familial satisfaction, birth order, and fertility values // Journal of marriage and family. 31: 27–33.
Hensvik L., P. Nilsson (2010). Business, buddies and babies. IFAU Working paper.
Heuveline P., J.M. Timberlake (2004). The role of cohabitation in family formation: the United States in comparative perspective // Journal of marriage and family. 66: 1214–1230.
Hirschman C. (1994). Why fertility changes // Annual review of sociology. 20: 203–233.
Hobcraft J., K. Kiernan (1995). Becoming a parent in Europe. Vol. 1 // European population conference / EAPS-IUSSP, ed. Milan: Franco Angeli: 27–65.
Hoem J.M. (1986). The impact of education on modern family-union initiation // European journal of population. 2: 113–133.
Hoem J.M. (2005). Why does Sweden have such high fertility? // Demographic research. 13(22): 559–572.
Hoem J.M. (2008). Overview chapter 8: The impact of public policies on European fertility // Demographic research special collection. 7(19): 249–260.
Hoem B., J.M. Hoem (1997). Sweden’s family policies and roller-coaster fertility. Jinko Mondai Kenkyu // Journal of population problems. 52: 1–22.
Hoem J.M., G. Neyer, G. Andersson (2006). Educational attainment and childlessness: the relationship between educational field, educational level, and childlessness among Swedish women born in 1955–59 // Demographic research 14: 331–380.
Hoffman L.W., M.L. Hoffman (1973). The value of children to parents // Psychological perspectives on population / J.T. Fawcett, ed. New York: Basic Books: 19–76.
Hoffman L.W., J.D. Manis (1979). The value of children in the United States: a new approach to the study of fertility // Journal of marriage and family. 41(3): 583–596.
Horwitz S.M., L.V. Klerman, H.S. Kuo, J.F. Jekel (1991). Intergenerational transmission of school-age parenthood // Family planning perspectives. 23(168–172): 177.
Iacovou M., L.P. Tavares (2011). Yearning, learning, and conceding: reasons men and women change their childbearing intentions // Population and development review. 37(1): 89–123.
Jansen M.D., A.C. Liefbroer (2006). Couples’ attitudes, childbirth and the division of labor // Journal of family issues. 27: 1487–1511.
Jefferies J., A. Berrington, I. Diamond (2000). Childbearing following marital dissolution in Britain // European journal of population. 16: 193–210.
Johnson, N. E., & Stokes, C. S. (1976). Family size in successive generations: the effects of birth order, international change in lifestyle, and familial satisfaction // Demography. 13: 175–187.
Jokela M., M. Kivima¨ki, M. Elovainio, L. Keltikangas-Ja¨rvinen (2009). Personality and having children: a two-way relationship // Journal of personality and social psychology. 96(1): 218–230.
Jones L.E., A. Schoonbroodt, M. Tertilt (2011). Fertility theories. Can they explain the negative fertility-income relationship? // Demography & the economy / J.B. Shoven, ed. Chicago: University of Chicago Press: 43–100.
Joshi H. (2002). Production, reproduction and education: women, children and work in a British perspective // Population and development review. 28: 445–474.
Kahn J.R., K.E. Anderson (1992). Intergenerational patterns of teenage fertility // Demography. 29: 39–57.
Kalwij A. (2010). The impact of family policy expenditure on fertility in western Europe // Demography. 47(2): 503–519.
Keim S., A. Kla¨rner, L. Bernardi (2009). Qualifying social influence on fertility intentions: composition, structure, and meaning of fertility-relevant social networks // Current sociology. 57(6): 1–20.
Kertzer D.I., M.J. White, L. Bernardi, G. Gabrielli (2009). Italy’s path to very low fertility: the adequacy of economic and second demographic transition theories // European journal of population. 25(1): 89–115.
Kneale D., H. Joshi (2008). Postponement and childlessness: evidence from two British cohorts // Demographic research. 19: 1935–1968.
Kögel T. (2004). Did the association between fertility and female employment within OECD countries really change its sign? // Journal of population economics. 17(45): 65.
Kohler H.-P. (1997). Learning in social networks and contraceptive choice // Demography. 34: 369–383.
Kohler H.-P. (2001). Fertility and social interaction. An economic perspective. Oxford: Oxford university press.
Kohler H.-P., I. Kohler (2002). Fertility decline in Russia in the early and mid 1990s: the role of economic uncertainty and labour market crises // European journal of population. 18(3): 233–262.
Kohler H.P., J.L. Rodgers (2003). Education, fertility, and heritability: explaining a paradox // Offspring: Fertility behavior in biodemographic perspective / K.W. Wachter, R.A. Bulatao, eds. Washington, DC: National Academies press: 46–90.
Kohler H.P., J.L. Rodgers, K. Christensen (1999). Is fertility behavior in our genes? Findings from a danish twin study // Population and development review. 25: 253–288.
Kohler H.-P., J.R. Behrman, S.C. Watkins (2001). The density of social networks and fertility decisions: evidence from South Nyanza District, Kenya // Demography. 38(1): 43–58.
Kohler H.P., F.C. Billari, J.A. Ortega (2002a). The emergence of lowest-low fertility in Europe during the 1990s // Population and development review. 28: 641–681.
Kohler H.-P., J.L. Rodgers, K. Christensen (2002b). Between nurture and nature: the shifting determinants of female fertility in Danish twin cohorts 1870–1968 // Social biology. 49: 218–248.
Kohler H.-P., J.R. Behrman, A. Skytthe (2005). Partner ? children = happiness? The effects of partnerships and fertility on well-being // Population and development review. 31(3): 407–445.
Kravdal Ø. (1992). The emergence of a positive relation between education and third birth rates in Norway with supportive evidence from the United States // Population studies. 46(3): 459–475.
Kravdal Ø. (1994). The importance of economic activity, economic potential and economic resources for the timing of firth birth in Norway // Population studies. 48: 249–267.
Kravdal Ø. (1996). How the local supply of day-care centers influences fertility in Norway: a parityspecific approach // Population research and policy review. 15(3): 201–218.
Kravdal Ø., R.R. Rindfuss (2008). Changing relationships between education and fertility: a study of women and men born 1940 to 1964 // American sociological review. 73: 854–873.
Kreyenfeld M. (2010). Uncertainties in female employment careers and the postponement of parenthood in Germany // European sociological review. 26(3): 351–366.
Kulu H. (2005). Migration and fertility: competing hypotheses re-examined // European journal of population. 21(1): 51–87.
Kulu, H. (2011). Why do fertility levels vary between urban and rural areas? // Regional studies. 1–17.
Kulu H., P.J. Boyle (2009). High fertility in city suburbs: compositional or contextual effects? // European journal of population. 25(2): 157–174.
Kulu H., A. Vikat (2007). Fertility differences by housing type: the effect of housing conditions or of selective moves? // Demographic research. 17(26): 775–802.
Kulu H., P. Boyle, G. Andersson (2009). High suburban fertility: evidence from four Northern European countries // Demographic research. 21(31): 915–944.
Kuziemko I. (2006). Is having babies contagious? Fertility peer effects between adult siblings. Princeton university (working paper).
Lappegard T. (2002). Education attainment and fertility pattern among Norwegian women. Documents 2002/18. Department of social statistics, Statistics Norway, Oslo.
Lappegard T., M. Rønsen (2005). The multifaceted impact of education on entry into motherhood // European journal of population. 21: 31–49.
Le Goff J.-M. (2002). Cohabiting unions in France and in West Germany. Transitions to first birth and first marriage // Demographic research. 7(18): 594–624.
Lee R., A. Mason (2010). Fertility, human capital, and economic growth over the demographic transition // European journal of population. 26(2): 159–182.
Leridon H. (2008). A new estimate of permanent sterility by age: Sterility defined as the inability to conceive // Population studies. 62(1): 15–24.
Lesthaeghe R. (1983). A century of demographic and cultural change in Western Europe: an exploration of underlying dimensions // Population and development review. 9(3): 411–435.
Lesthaeghe R. (2010). The unfolding story of the second demographic transition // Population and development review. 36(2): 211–251.
Lesthaeghe R., D. van de Kaa (1986). Twee demografische transities? (Two demographic transitions?) // Bevolking—Groei en krimp, mens en maatschappij / Lesthaeghe, van de Kaa, eds. Deventer: Van Loghum Slaterus: 9–24.
Liefbroer A.C. (2005). The impact of perceived costs and rewards of childbearing on entry into parenthood: evidence from a panel study // European journal of population. 21(4): 367–391.
Liefbroer A.C. (2009). Changes in family size intentions across young adulthood: a life-course perspective // European journal of population. 25(4): 363–386.
Liefbroer A.C., F.C. Billari (2010). Bringing norms back in: a theoretical and empirical discussion of their importance for understanding demographic behavior // Population, space and place. 16(4): 287–305.
Lillard L.A., J.L. Waite (1993). A joint model of marital childbearing and marital disruption // Demography. 30: 653–681.
Lin N., K.S. Cook, R.S. Burt. (2001). Social capital: Theory and research. New Brunswick: Aldine Transaction.
Livi-Bacci M. (2001). Too few children and too much family // Daedalus. 130: 139–156.
Lutz W., B.C. O’Neill, S. Scherbov (2003). Europe’s population at a turning point // Science. 299: 1991–1992.
Lyngstad T.H., A. Prskawetz (2010). Do siblings’ fertility decisions influence each other? // Demography. 47(4): 923–934.
Macunovich D.J. (1996). Relative income and price of time: exploring their effects on US fertility and female labor force participation // Population and development review. 22: 223–257.
Mandemakers J.J., P.A. Dykstra (2008). Discrepancies in parent’s and adult child’s reports of support and contact // Journal of marriage and family. 70(2): 495–506.
Manlove J. (1997). Early motherhood in an intergenerational perspective: the experiences of a British cohort // Journal of marriage and family. 59: 263–297.
Manski C.F. (1993). Identification of endogenous social effects: the reflection problem // The review of economic studies. 60(3): 531–542.
Manski C.F. (1995). Identification problems in social sciences. New York: Harvard university press.
Manski C.F., J. Mayshar (2003). Private incentives and social interactions: Fertility puzzles in Israel // Journal of the European economic association. 1(1): 181–211.
Manuelli R.E., A. Seshadri (2009). Explaining international fertility differences // Quarterly journal of economics. 124(2): 771–807.
Margolis R., M. Myrskylä (2011). A global perspective on happiness and fertility // Population and development review. 37(1): 29–56.
Martin S.P. (2000). Diverging fertility among U.S. women who delay childbearing past age 30 // Demography. 37: 523–533.
Martin J. (2004). The ultimate vote of confidence’: Fertility rates and economic conditions in Australia, 1976–2000 // Australian social policy 2002–2003. Canberra: Commonwealth of Australia: 31–54.
Martin-Garcia T., P. Baizan (2006). The impact of type of education and of educational enrolment on first births // European sociological review. 22: 259–275.
Matthews B. (1999). The gender system and fertility: An exploration of the hidden links // Canadian studies in population. 26(1): 21–38.
Mayer K.U. (2004). Whose lives? How history, societies, and institutions define and shape life courses // Research in human development. 1(3): 161–187.
McCrary J., H. Royer (2011). The effect of female education on fertility and infant health: evidence from school entry policies using exact date of birth // American economic review. 101(1): 158–195.
McDonald P. (2000a). Gender equity in theories of fertility transition // Population and development review. 26(3): 427–439.
McDonald P. (2000b). Gender equality, social institutions and the future of fertility // Journal of population research. 17: 1–16.
McDonald P., R. Kippen (2009). Fertility in South Australia: an overview of trends and socioeconomic differences, 2009. Report to the Department of trade and economic development. Adelaide: Government of South Australia.
McLanahan S., J. Adams (1987). Parenthood and psychological well-being // Annual review of sociology. 13: 237–257.
Mencarini L., M.L. Tanturri (2006). High fertility or childlessness: micro-level determinants of reproductive behaviour in Italy // Population. 61(4): 389–416.
Meron M., I. Widmer (2002). Unemployment leads women to postpone the birth of their first child // Population. 57(2): 301–330.
Michael R.T., N.B. Tuma (1985). Entry into marriage and parenthood by young men and women: the influence of family background // Demography. 22: 515–544.
Micheli G.A. (2000). Kinship, family and social network: the anthropological embedment of fertility change in Southern Europe // Demographic research. 3(13).
Miller A.R. (2010). The effect of motherhood timing on career path // Journal of population economics. 24(3): 1071–1100.
Miller W.B. (2011). Comparing the TPB and the T-D-I-B framework // Vienna yearbook of population research. 9(1): 19–29.
Miller W.B., D.J. Pasta (1994). The psychology of child timing: a measurement instrument and a model // Journal of applied social psychology. 24: 218–250.
Miller Torr B.M., S.E. Short (2004). Second births and the second shift: a research note on gender equity and fertility // Population and development review. 30: 109–130.
Milligan K. (2005). Subsidizing the stork: new evidence on tax incentives and fertility // Review of economics and statistics. 87(3): 539–555.
Mills M. (2004). Stability and change: the structuration of partnership histories in Canada, the Netherlands and the Russian Federation // European journal of population. 20: 141–175.
Mills M. (2010). Gender roles, gender (in)equality and fertility: an empirical test of five gender equity indices // Canadian population studies. 37(3/4): 445–474.
Mills M., K. Begall (2010). The impact of gender preferences on third Births in Europe: a multilevel examination of men and women // Population studies. 64(1): 77–95.
Mills M., H.-P. Blossfeld (2005). Globalization, uncertainty and the early life course: a theoretical framework // Globalization, uncertainty and youth in society/ H.-P. Blossfeld, E. Klijzing, M. Mills, K. Kurz, eds. London/New York: Routledge advances in sociology serie: 1–24.
Mills M., L. Mencarini, M.L. Tanturri, K. Begall (2008). Gender equity and fertility intentions in Italy and the Netherlands // Demographic research. 18(1): 1–26.
Mills M., R.R. Rindfuss, P. McDonald, E. te Velde (2011). Why do people postpone parenthood? Reasons and social policy incentives // Human reproduction update. 17(6): 848–860.
Mishra V., I. Nielsen, R. Smyth (2010). On the relationship between female labour force participation and fertility in G7 countries: evidence from panel cointegration and Granger causality // Empirical economics. 38(2): 361–372.
Montgomery M.R., J.B. Casterline (1996). Social influence, social learning, and new models of fertility // Fertility in the United States: new patterns, new theories / J. Casterline, R. Lee, K. Foote, eds.: 87–99.
Morgan S.P., C.A. Bachrach (2011). Is the theory of planned behaviour an appropriate model for human fertility? // Vienna yearbook of population research. 9(1): 11–18.
Morgan S.P., H. Rackin (2010). The correspondence between fertility intentions and behavior in the United States // Population and development review. 36(1): 91–118.
Morgan S.P., M.G. Taylor (2006). Low fertility at the turn of the twenty-first century // Annual review of sociology. 32: 375–399.
Murphy M. (1993). The contraceptive pill and women’s employment as factors in fertility change in Britain 1963–1980: a challenge to the conventional view // Population studies. 47(2): 221–243.
Murphy M., D. Wang (2001). Family-level continuities in childbearing in low-fertility societies // European journal of population. 17: 75–96.
Myers S.M. (1997). Marital uncertainty and childbearing // Social forces. 75: 1271–1289.
Myrskylä M., H.-P. Kohler, F.C. Billari (2009). Advances in development reverse fertility declines // Nature. 460(7256): 741–743.
Nauck B. (2007). Value of children and the framing of fertility: results from a cross-cultural comparative survey in 10 societies // European sociological review. 23(5): 615–629.
Neels K. (2010). Temporal variation in unemployment rates and their association with tempo and quantum of fertility: some evidence for Belgium, France and the Netherlands. Paper presented at the Annual meeting of the Population association of America, Dallas, 17 April.
Neyer G. (2003). Family policies and low fertility in Western Europe. Rostock: Max Planck Institute for demographic research (MPIDR Working paper).
Neyer G., G. Andersson (2008). Consequences of family policies on childbearing behavior: effects or artifacts? // Population and development review. 34: 699–724.
Neyer G.R., J.M. Hoem (2008). Education and permanent childlessness: Austria vs. Sweden; a research note // Demographic challenges for the 21st century: a state of the art in demography / J. Surkyn, P. Deboosere, J. Van Bavel, eds. Brussels: VUBPRESS.
Noguera C.S., K. Golsch, N. Stainhage (2003). Increasing uncertainty in the Spanish labour market and entry into parenthood // Genus. 58(1): 77–119.
O’Donoghue C., D. Meredith, E. O’Shea (2011). Postponing maternity in Ireland // Cambridge journal of economics. 35(1): 59–84.
OECD (2011). Doing better for families. OECD Publishing.
Olah L.S. (2003). Gendering fertility: Second births in Sweden and Hungary // Population research and policy review. 22: 171–200.
Oppenheimer V.K. (1988). A theory of marriage timing // American journal of sociology. 94: 563–591.
Oppenheimer V.K. (1994). Women’s rising employment and the future of the family in industrial societies // Population and development review. 20: 293–342.
Oppenheimer V.K. (2003). Cohabiting and marriage during young men’s career-development process // Demography. 40: 127–149.
Oppenheimer V.K., M. Kalmijn, N. Lim (1997). Men’s career development and marriage timing during a period of rising inequality // Demography. 3: 311–330.
Örsal D.D.K., J.R. Goldstein (2010). The increasing importance of economic conditions for fertility. MPIDR Working Paper WP 2010-014. Rostock: Max Planck Institute for demographic research.
Pampel F.C. (2001). The institutional context of population change. Chicago: The University of Chicago press.
Pampel F.C., H.E. Peters (1995). The Easterlin effect // Annual review of sociology. 21: 163–194.
Parr N. (2010). Satisfaction with life as an antecedent of fertility: partner ? happiness = children? // Demographic research. 22(21): 635–661.
Pfau-Effinger B. (1999). Change of family policies in the socio-cultural context of European societies // Family policies. Yearbook comparative social research (135–159) / A. Leira, ed. Stamford: JAI press.
Philipov D. (2002). Fertility in times of discontinuous societal change: the case of Central and Eastern Europe. MPIDR Working paper 2002–024. Rostock: Max Planck Institute for demographic research.
Philipov D. (2009). Fertility intentions and outcomes: The role of policies to close the gap // European journal of population. 25: 355–361.
Philipov D., Z. Speder, F.C. Billari (2006). Soon, later, or ever? The impact of anomie and social capital on fertility intentions in Bulgaria (2002) and Hungary (2001) // Population studies. 60(3): 289–308.
Pouwels B.J. (2011). Work, family, and happiness: essays on interdependencies within families, life events, and time allocation decisions. PhD dissertation. Utrecht: Utrecht university.
Prskawetz A., A. Vikat, D. Philipov, H. Engelhardt (2003). Pathways to stepfamily formation in Europe: results from the FFS // Demographic research. 8(5): 107–149.
Quesnel-Vallé A., S.P. Morgan (2003). Missing the target? Correspondence of fertility intentions and behavior in the U.S. // Population research and policy review. 22: 497–525.
Reher D.S. (1998). Family ties in western Europe: persistent contrasts // Population and development review. 24(2): 203–234.
Rendall M.S., R.A. Bahchieva (1998). An old-age security motive for fertility in the United States? // Population and development review. 24(2): 293–307.
Rijken A.J., A.C. Liefbroer (2009). The effects of relationship quality on fertility // European journal of population. 25: 27–44.
Rijken A.J., E. Thomson. (2011). Partners’ relationship quality and childbearing // Social science research. 40(2): 485–497.
Rindfuss R., A. Vandenheuvel (1990). Cohabitation: a precursor to marriage or an alternative to being single? // Population and development review. 16(4): 703–726.
Rindfuss R.R., L. Bumpass, C. St. John (1980). Education and fertility: implications for the roles women occupy // American sociological review. 45: 431–447.
Rindfuss R.R., S.P. Morgan, K. Offutt (1996). Education and changing age pattern of American fertility: 1963–1989 // Demography. 33: 277–290.
Rindfuss R.R., M.K. Choe, L.L. Bumpass, N.O. Tsuya (2004). Social networks and family change in Japan // American sociological review. 69: 838–861.
Rindfuss R.R., D.K. Guilkey, S.P. Morgan, O. Kravdal (2010). Child-care availability and fertility in Norway // Population and development review. 36(4): 725–748.
Rodgers J.L., H.P. Kohler, M. McGue, J.R. Behrman., I. Petersen, P. Bingley et al. (2008). Education and cognitive ability as direct, mediating, or spurious influences on female age at first birth: behaviour genetic models fit to Danish Twin data // American journal of sociology. 114(Supp): 202–232.
Rondinelli C., A. Aassve, F.C. Billari (2010). Women’s wages and childbearing decisions: evidence from Italy // Demographic research. 22(19): 549–578.
Rosen M. (2004). Fertility and public policies-evidence from Norway and Finland // Demographic research. 10(6): 143–170.
Rossier C., L. Bernardi (2009). Social interaction effects on fertility: intentions and behaviors // European journal of population. 25: 467–485.
Santow G., M. Bracher (2001). Deferment of the first birth and fluctuating fertility in Sweden // European journal of population. 17: 343–363.
Schoen R., Y. Kim, C. Nathanson, J. Fields, N.M. Astone (1997). Why do Americans want children? // Population and development review. 23(2): 333–358.
Schoen R., N.M. Astone, Y.J. Kim, C.A. Nathanson, J.M. Fields (1999). Do fertility intentions affect fertility behavior? // Journal of marriage and family. 61(3): 790–799.
Settersten R.A.J., G.O. Hagestad (1996). What’s the latest? Cultural age deadlines for family transitions // Gerontologist. 36(2): 178–188.
Skirbekk V. (2008). Fertility trends by social status // Demographic research. 18(5): 145–180.
Sobotka T. (2004). Postponement of childbearing and low fertility in Europe. Amsterdam: Dutch university press.
Sobotka T., F.C. Billari, H.-P. Kohler (2010). The return of late childbearing in developed countries: causes, trends and implications. Vienna: Vienna institute of demography.
Sobotka T., V. Skirbekk, D. Philipov (2011). Economic recession and fertility in the developed world // Population and development review. 2: 267–306.
Spéder Z., B. Kapita´ny (2009). How are time-dependent childbearing intentions realized? Realization, postponement, abandonment, bringing forward // European journal of population. 25: 503–523.
Steele F., C. Kallis, H. Goldstein, H. Joshi (2005). The relationship between childbearing and transitions from marriage and cohabitation in Britain // Demography. 42(4): 647–673.
Steele F., H. Joshi, C. Kallis, H. Goldstein (2006). Changing compatibility of cohabitation and childbearing between young British women born in 1958 and 1970 // Population studies. 60(2): 137–152.
Steenhof L., A.C. Liefbroe (2008). Intergenerational transmission of age at first birth in the Netherlands for birth cohorts between 1935 and 1984: Evidence from municipal registers // Population studies. 62: 69–84.
Steglich C., T.A.B. Snijders, M. Pearson (2010). Dynamic networks and behavior: separating selection from influence // Sociological methodology. 40: 29–393.
Stewart S.D. (2002). The effect of stepchildren on childbearing intentions and births // Demography. 39(1): 181–197.
Surkyn J., R. Lesthaeghe (2004). Value orientations and the second demographic transition (SDT) in northern, western and southern Europe: an update // Demographic research (Special collection 3).
Swartz T.T. (2009). Intergenerational family relations in adulthood: patterns, variations, and implications in the contemporary United States // Annual review of sociology. 35: 191–212.
Tazi-Preve I., D. Bichlbauer, A. Goujon (2004). Gender trouble and its impact on fertility intentions // Yearbook of population research in Finland. 40: 5–24.
Testa M.R. (2006). Childbearing preferences and family issues in Europe. Special Eurobarometer. 253/Wave 65.1—TNS Opinion & Social.
Thomson E. (1997). Couple childbearing desires, intentions and births // Demography. 34: 343–354.
Thomson E. (2002). Motherhood, fatherhood and family values // Meaning and choice: value orientations and life course decisions / R. Lesthaeghe, ed. The Hague: NIDI/CBGS Publications No. 37: 251–272.
Thomson E., J.M. Hoem (1998). Couple childbearing plans and births in Sweden // Demography. 35: 315–322.
Thomson E., E. McDonald, L.L. Bumpass (1990). Fertility desires and fertility: hers, his, and theirs // Demography. 27: 579–588.
Thornton A. (1977). Children and marital stability // Journal of marriage and family. 39: 531–540.
Thornton A. (1978). Marital dissolution, remarriage, and childbearing // Demography. 15: 361–380.
Thornton A. (1980). The influence of first generation fertility and economic status on second generation fertility // Population and environment. 3: 51–72.
Thornton A., D. Philipov (2009). Sweeping changes in marriage, cohabitation and childbearing in Central and Eastern Europe: new insights from the developmental idealism framework // European journal of population. 25(2): 123–156.
Toulemon L., M.R. Testa (2005). Fertility intentions and actual fertility: a complex relationship // Population & societies. 415: 4.
Van Bavel J. (2010). Choice of study discipline and the postponement of motherhood in Europe: the impact of expected earnings, gender composition and family attitudes // Demography. 47: 439–458.
Van de Kaa D.J. (1997). Options and sequences: Europe’s demographic patterns // Journal of the Australian population association. 14: 1–29.
Van Giersbergen N.P.A., J. De Beer (1997). Geboorteontwikkeling en consumentenvertrouwen: een econometrische analyse (Birth trends and consumer confidence: An econometric analysis) // Maandstatistiek van de Bevolking. 1997(11): 23–27.
Vikat A., J.M. Hoem, E. Thomson (1999). Stepfamily fertility in contemporary Sweden: the impact of childbearing before the current union // Population studies. 53: 211–225.
Vikat A., Z. Spéder, G. Beets, F.C. Billari, C. Bu¨hler, A. Desesquelles et al. (2007). Generations and gender survey (GGS): towards a better understanding of relationships and processes in the life course // Demographic research. 17: 389–439.
Vitali A., F.C. Billari, A. Prskawetz, M.R. Testa (2009). Preference theory and low fertility: a comparative perspective // European journal of population. 25(4): 413–438.
Wachter K.W., R.A. Bulatao (2003). Offspring: Human fertility behavior in biodemographic perspective. National Research Council, Committee on Population, Division on Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education. Washington, DC: The National Academies press.
Waite L.J., L.A. Lillard (1991). Children and marital disruption // American journal of sociology. 96(4): 930–953.
Walker J.R. (1995). The Effect of public policies on recent Swedish fertility behavior // Journal of population economics. 8(3): 223–251.
Westoff C., N. Ryder (1977). The predictive validity of reproductive intentions // Demography. 4: 431–453.
Whittington L.A. (1993). State income tax policy and family size: fertility and the dependent exemption // Public finance quarterly. 21(4): 378–398.
Willis R.J.A. (1973). New approach to the economic theory of fertility behavior // Journal of political economy. 81(2): 14–64.
Winkler-Dworak M., L. Toulemon (2007). Gender differences in the transition to adulthood in France: is there convergence over the recent period? // European journal of population. 23(3): 273–314.
Wu Z. (1996). Childbearing in cohabitational relationships // Journal of marriage and family. 58: 281–292.
Wu Z., C.M. Schimmele (2005). Repartnering after first union disruption // Journal of marriage and family. 67: 27–36.
Zimmer B.G., J. Fulton (1980). Size of family, life chances, and reproductive behavior // Journal of marriage and family. 42: 657–670.
