Эпидемиологический переход и его интерпретации
Аннотация
Критический анализ теории эпидемиологического перехода (ЭП) А. Омрана и ее различных интерпретаций. Ставится под сомнение предложенная Омраном периодизация ЭП, с ней сопоставляется разграничение двух «эпидемиологических революций» М. Терриса. Отмечается огромное всемирно-историческое значение ЭП как триггера и составной части демографического перехода в целом и обосновывается несогласие с трактовкой ЭП как составной части «санитарного перехода». Оспаривается концепция «кардиоваскулярной революции». Предлагается метод графического представления ЭП и обсуждаются критерии его завершения. Обосновывается несогласие с представлениями о «первом», неолитическом, и «третьем», ожидаемом в будущем, ЭП, а также об «обратном» ЭП. Рассматриваются проблемы «догоняющего» ЭП в развивающихся странах.
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