Эпидемиологический переход и его интерпретации

  • Анатолий Григорьевич Вишневский Национальный Исследовательский Университет «Высшая Школа Экономики»
Ключевые слова: эпидемиологический переход, эпидемиологическая революция, демографический переход, санитарный переход, стадии эпидемиологического перехода, кардиоваскулярная революция, вероятность умереть, средний возраст смерти

Аннотация

Критический анализ теории эпидемиологического перехода (ЭП) А. Омрана и ее различных интерпретаций. Ставится под сомнение предложенная Омраном периодизация ЭП, с ней сопоставляется разграничение двух «эпидемиологических революций» М. Терриса. Отмечается огромное всемирно-историческое значение ЭП как триггера и составной части демографического перехода в целом и обосновывается несогласие с трактовкой ЭП как составной части «санитарного перехода». Оспаривается концепция «кардиоваскулярной революции». Предлагается метод графического представления ЭП и обсуждаются критерии его завершения. Обосновывается несогласие с представлениями о «первом», неолитическом, и «третьем», ожидаемом в будущем, ЭП, а также об «обратном» ЭП. Рассматриваются проблемы «догоняющего» ЭП в развивающихся странах.

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Опубликован
2020-09-01
Как цитировать
ВишневскийА. Г. (2020). Эпидемиологический переход и его интерпретации. Демографическое обозрение, 7(3), 6-50. https://doi.org/10.17323/demreview.v7i3.11635
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