Межпоколенческие счета и демографический дивиденд в России
Аннотация
В предлагаемой статье представлена современная методология оценки вклада отдельных возрастных групп в производство и распределение национального дохода – национальные трансфертные (межпоколенческие) счета. Экономический жизненный цикл человека делится на стадии, которые определяются соотношением трудового дохода и потребления. В средних возрастах получаемый доход превышает текущее потребление. Возникает избыток или профицит ресурсов, который идет на покрытие дефицита дохода для обеспечения потребления в младших и старших возрастных группах. Оценки дефицита или профицита в отдельных возрастах выполнены для российского населения по состоянию на 2013 г. на основе построенных по результатам обследований и административных источников возрастных профилей доходов и потребления. Дается оценка изменений дефицита жизненного цикла на перспективу при разных сценариях демографического развития. Возрастные профили доходов и потребления были использованы для оценки эффективной экономической поддержки и влияния демографических изменений в России на темпы экономического роста в ближайшем будущем.
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