On demographic development of the BRICS countries. Notes from the Civilizational Forum "Perspectives and strategic priorities for BRICS ascension"

Abstract

The article looks at the results of the Civilizational Forum "Perspectives and strategic priorities for BRICS ascension", which discussed a report for the upcoming 7th BRICS  summit in 2015 in the city of Ufa, Russia.   The author focuses on the two main issues of the published report: (1) the demographic forecast for the BRICS countries up to 2100, and (2) the idea of an opposition between the civilizations of the declining West and the rising East. The models of population growth presented at the Forum are too provisional, do not take into account migration and yet provide recommendations to the governments of the two largest countries in the world. According to the report, the main threat to India is that of exceeding the ecological capacity of its territory if the current rate of population growth is sustained. China, on the contrary, must increase its fertility if it is to solve the problems of population ageing and the consequent drop in the share of the workforce after 2050. These and some other ideas of the report, in the author's opinion, contradict contemporary concepts of demographic science.