The demographic modernization of Iran (from the second half of the 20th to the beginning of the 21st century)

Abstract

The demographic transition is the key event in the demographic history of all countries of the world. In the developing countries it began far later than in the developed ones (mostly in the second half of the 20th century), but it took place much faster, as these countries were able to borrow the experience of the developed world in coping with mortality. Fertility, however, remained high, leading to a demographic explosion ‒ an abrupt acceleration of population growth. The same thing happened in Iran starting in the 1950-s. The Shah’s regime, in spite of a clear increase in life expectancy, still couldn’t eliminate the country’s mortality problems, which were only solved, on the whole, by the Islamic regime which followed. As for fertility, the Shah’s family planning program brought only modest results, while the program begun by the Islamic regime was so effective that it lowered fertility level several times over within a mere ten years. Today, in many cities and regions of Iran fertility has fallen below the replacement level, causing concern in the government, which has begun to limit family planning activities. At present, contraceptive use in Iran has become almost universal, not only among the urban population, but even among the population of the countryside, regardless of the education level. The main indicators related to the level of socio-economic modernization, such as the urbanization level, the literacy rate, and the percentage of the population with electricity, clean drinking water and home appliances, have grown rapidly over the last few decades, bringing Iran close to the developed countries in this regard.