How robotics and labor-saving technologies impact population change: trends and scenarios
Abstract
Robots and other labor-saving technologies such as numerical control machine tools, additive technologies, artificial intelligence and large production complexes in mining are replacing human beings in manufacturing. The shrinking labor market will influence fertility, health care financing (and thus mortality), as well as both internal and international migration, especially in developing countries.
The departure of women from the labor market may lead to an increase in fertility, especially if the state introduces a guaranteed income for each of its members. At the same time, unemployment may lead to a significant decrease in fertility and in the desire to have children.
Artificial intelligence in medicine may improve the quality of diagnostics and reduce the costs of medical services, thus leading to lower mortality, but decreasing tax revenue and personal income may slow down rising life expectancy or even bring it to a halt.
At the same time, labor-saving technologies will solve the problem of labor shortages resulting from an aging population.
Today’s international migration patterns may change dramatically, since labor immigrants will no longer be needed in developed economies. The modernization model for developing countries which took shape in the 20th century, consisting of industrialization and urbanization, may disappear as a result of a shrinking labor market in modern industry and services. Urbanization alone, with no industrialization, results in political disturbance and even bloodshed, as shown by the experience of developing states in the years 1960-2005.
Both positive and negative scenarios of population change may result from the development of labor-saving technologies. The result will mainly depend on the management of social and demographic processes.
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References
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