The demographic transition and the hypothesis of hyperbolic population growth
Abstract
The article analyzes the interpretation of the demographic transition by the proponents of the hypothesis of the hyperbolic law of population growth. The author comes to the conclusion that over the last two or three decades a number of Russian authors who share this hypothesis have developed a system of ideas about the laws of demographic development and the demographic transition as a modern stage of this development, an alternative to the generally accepted “classical” theory. The task of the article is not so much to express disagreement with the proposed alternative, but rather to show the difference from the already existing ideas in its approaches and their consequences. At the same time, the author expresses a critical attitude to a number of postulates on which the hyperbolic law hypothesis is based, primarily to the underlying postulate of self-sufficiency of demographic growth and its independence from external conditions.
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