Rethinking the contemporary history of fertility: family, state, and the world system

  • Mikhail Klupt St. Petersburg State University of Economics (UNECON)
Ключевые слова: fertility, demographic policy, family policy, centre-peripheral relations, world system

Аннотация

The paper highlights the drivers of contemporary fertility history in developed countries “forgotten” by theory: fundamental changes in the world system after the Second World War and in the late 1980s and early 1990s; competing ideas of the “right” family and family and demographic policy; centre-peripheral relations and their impact on the resource capabilities of such policy. Statistical analysis shows that the periods during which countries’ positions by total fertility rates remained stable were disrupted by intervals in which significant changes in these positions occurred. Twice, due to the Second World War and the disintegration of the Soviet bloc, such intervals coincided with fundamental shifts in the world system. In addition, such intervals occurred in Western countries in the late 1980s and early 1990s, when the negative association between women’s participation in the labour force and fertility became positive, and then in the 2000s in Russia, countries of Eastern and Central Europe and the former Yugoslavia during fertility “recovery”. Contemporary fertility changes in the developed world are directed by “gravitational fields” of four attractors. Three of them are institutional traps created by low living standards, or contradictions between the “new” economy and “old” family relations, or, in varying proportions, both. The fourth attractor is an ideal condition in which generous family policy and men’s participation in the home maintain fertility at the replacement level. Currently, France and the Scandinavian countries come closest to this. The question of whether the developed semi-peripheral countries will be able to approach this condition, or, due to resource constraints, it will remain a privilege accessible only to the core countries, remains open.

Скачивания

Данные скачивания пока не доступны.

Литература

Andersson G., J. A.-Z. Hoem, Duvander (2005). Social differentials in speed-premium effects in childbearing in Sweden // MPIDR working paper 2005-027. URL: http://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2005-027.pdf (accessed: 05.05.2018).

De Gaulle Ch. (2004). Voennye memuary [War memoirs]. T.3. [Vol.3]. Spasenie 1944-1946 [Salvation 1944-1946]. Moscow: AST, Astrel', Tranzitkniga. 799 p.

Demoscope Weekly. Prilozenie. [Demoscope Weekly Supplementary materials] (2018). Koeffitsient summarnoy rozhdaemosti [Total fertility rate].URL: http://www.demoscope.ru/weekly/app/app4007.php (accessed: 14.04.2018).

Family Database (2018). OECD. URL: http://www.oecd.org/els/family/database.htm#TOP (accessed: 30.04.2018).

Frejka T. (1980). Fertility trends and policies: Czechoslovakia in the 1970s // Population and Development Review: 6(1) 65-93.

Goldscheider F., E. Bernhardt, T. Lappegârd (2015). The gender revolution: a framework for understanding changing family and demographic behavior // Population and Development Review. 41 (2): 207–239.

Kulczyk M. (2016). Family rights and family policy in Poland. European Center for Law and Justice. URL: http://media.aclj.org/pdf/Marcin-KULCZYK-Family-rights-and-family-policy-in-Poland.pdf (accessed: 28.04.2018).

Lesthaeghe R., L. Neidert (2009). Presidential elections and the spatial pattern of the American second demographic transition // Population and Development Review. 35(2): 391-400.

LFS (2018). LFS by age and sex – indicators. OECD. URL: https://stats.oecd.org/Index.aspx?DataSetCode=LFS_SEXAGE_I_R# (accessed: 30.04.2018).

Maddison A. (2010). Historical Statistics of the World Economy URL: http://www.ggdc.net/maddison/historical_statistics/horizontal-file_02-2010.xls (accessed: 28.04.2018).

Malinova O.Yu. (2013). Konstruirovanie smyslov: issledovanie simvolicheskoy politiki v sovremennoy Rossii [Constructing Meanings: Study of Symbolic Politics in Modern Russia] Moscow: RAN INION. 421 p.

Meil Landwerlin G. (1995). Presente y futuro de la política familiar en España // Reis. Revista española de investigaciones sociológicas. 1(70): 67-90.

Morago Garcia M. (2008). Notas sobre la situacion jurídica De la mujer en el franquismo // Feminismo/s. 12: 229-252.

Niehus M. (1995). French and German family policy 1945-60 // Contemporary European History. 4(3): 293-313.

Nielfa Cristóbal G., ed. (2003). Mujeres y hombres en la España franquista: sociedad, economía, política, cultura. Madrid. 303p.

Rindfuss R., K. Guzzo, S. Morgan (2003). The changing institutional context of low fertility // Population Research and Policy Review. 22 (5/6): 411-438.

Tilly Ch., R. Goodin (2006). It depends // The Oxford Handbook of Contextual political analysis / Ch.Tilly, R.Goodin, eds. Oxford: Oxford University Press: 3−34.

Toulemon L., A. Pailhé, C. Rossier (2008). France: High and stable fertility // Demographic Research. 19: 503-556. URL: http://www.demographic-research.org/Volumes/Vol19/16 (accessed: 05.05.2018).

UNDP (2002). Human Development Report 2002. Deepening democracy in a fragmented world. NY. 277 p.

UNDP (2016). Human Development Report 2016. Human Development for Everyone. NY. 271 p.

Van de Kaa D. (1996). Anchored narratives. The story and findings of half a century of research into the determinants of fertility // Population Studies. 50(3): 389-432.

Опубликован
2019-12-17
Как цитировать
Klupt, M. (2019). Rethinking the contemporary history of fertility: family, state, and the world system. Демографическое обозрение, 5(5), 25-39. https://doi.org/10.17323/demreview.v5i5.10177
Раздел
Оригинальные статьи