Pension reform 2019: determinants, consequences, alternatives

  • Sergey Ivanov Institute of Socio-Political Studies, Russian Academy of Sciences
Ключевые слова: population ageing, mortality, compulsory pension insurance, distributive pension system, statutory pension age, Pension Fund of the Russian Federation, working-age population, employment, pension reform, sovereign wealth fund

Аннотация

The paper addresses, mostly with demographic tools, the rationale and consequences of the reform of Russia’s distributive pension system. Contrary to official assertions, mortality conditions do not warrant an increase of the pension age. The reference to a rapidly falling demographic support ratio as a rationale of the reform’s urgency is misleading. A rapid and large increase in the retirement age will considerably reduce the obligations of the Pension Fund of Russia, yet this will be far from enough to balance its budget. The reform creates a fundamentally new and difficult to implement task of ensuring the right to employment of persons deprived of the right to a pension. To the extent that this task can be accomplished, the Pension Fund of Russia and the State budget will be supplemented with additional revenues. At the same time, to the extent that this task remains unresolved, a social group of elderly people who are deprived of income will arise and continue to grow. For a limited time their life will be supported by unemployment benefits. Russia possesses large-scale alternative resources for resolving the pension problem, which consist, among other things, in increasing the collection of pension contributions, labor productivity and employment of the population, as well as in developing funded forms of pension insurance.

Скачивания

Данные скачивания пока не доступны.

Литература

Andreev E.M, M. McKee, V.M. Shkolnikov (2003). Health expectancy in the Russian Federation: a new perspective on the health divide in Europe // Bulletin of the World Health Organization vol. 81 (11) pp. 778-788. URL: https://www.who.int/bulletin/volumes/81/11/en/Andreevarabic1103.pdf

Arbati E., Feher C., Ree J.J.K., Saito I., Soto M. (2016). Automatic adjustment mechanism in Asian pension systems // International Monetary Fund: IMF Working Paper WP/16/242. URL: https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WP/Issues/2016/12/31/Automatic-Adjustment-Mechanisms-in-Asian-Pension-Systems-44460

Blake H., Garrouste C. (2017) Collateral effects of a pension reform in France. HAL: Id: hal-01500683 URL: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01500683v2

Carone G., Eckefeldt P., Giamboni L., Laine V., Pamies S. (2017). Pension reforms in the EU since the early 2000's: Achievements and challenges ahead // European Economy Discussion Paper No 42. URL: https://ec.europa.eu/info/publications/economy-finance/pension-reforms-eu-early-2000s-achievements-and-challenges-ahead_en

Chłoń-Domińczak А., Strzelecki P., Łątkowski W. (2016) Labour market and old-age transfers: Measuring the cohort effects of the pension reforms in Poland using APC approach. URL: http://international-pension-workshop.com/wp-content/uploads/papers-14/Chlon-Dominczak_1.pdf

De Grauwe, P. and M. Polan (2003) Globalisation and social spending // CESifo Working Paper No. 885. URL: https://www.ifo.de/DocDL/cesifo_wp885.pdf

Denisenko M.B., Ovcharova L.N., Varshavskaya E.Ya. pri uchastii [with the participation of] Vasin S.A., Kozlov V.A. (2018). Demograficheskiy kontekst povysheniya vozrasta vykhoda na pensiyu. Doklad gosudarstvennogo universiteta - Vysshaya shkola ekonomiki. [Demographic context of raising age of retirement. Paper of the State University - Higher School of Economics]. DOI: https://doi.org/10.17323/demreview.v5i1.7708

Fornero E., Lo Prete A. (2019). Voting in the aftermath of a pension reform: The role of financial literacy // Journal of Pension Economics and Finance Vol. 18(1), pp. 1–30. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/S1474747218000185

Gietel-Basten S., Mau V., Sanderson W., Scherbov S., Shulgin S. (2017). Ageing in Russia: Regional inequalities and pension reform // HKUST IEMS Working Paper No. 2017-49 URL: https://iems.ust.hk/assets/publications/working-papers-2017/iemswp2017-49.pdf

Grech A.G. (2013). Pension policy design changes in EU countries since the mid-1990s // International Journal of Social Welfare Vol. 34 Issue 3, pp. 296-304. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/ijsw.12138

Grishchenko N. (2016). Pensions after pension reforms: A comparative analysis of Belarus, Kazakhstan and Russia // Procedia Economics and Finance Vol. 36, pp. 3-9. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/S2212-5671(16)30010-7

Gurvich Ye.T. Long-term demographic challenges and pension policy // Journal of the New Economic Association. 2011. № 9. P. 193–196. (In Russ.).

Hessel P. (2016). Does retirement (really) lead to worse health among European men and women across all educational levels? // Social Science and Medicine. Vol. 151, pp. 19-26. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.socscimed.2015.12.018

Holzmann R. and Stilitz J.E. (2001). New ideas about old age security: toward sustainable pension systems in the 21st century. Washington DC: World Bank Group. URL: https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/13857

Ivanov S. (2010). Demographic and economic factors of labour supply: long-term projections and policy options for France, Germany, Italy and the United Kingdom. // Vienna Yearbook of Population Research. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1553/s83

Ivanov S. (2016). Obespecheniye zdorovogo obraza zhizni i sodeystviye blagopoluchiyu dlya vsekh v lyubom vozraste [Ensuring a healthy lifestyle and promoting well-being for all at any age] // L. Grigor'yev i S. Bobylev, eds. Tseli ustoychivogo razvitiya OON i Rossiya: Doklad o chelovecheskom razvitii v Rossiyskoy Federatsii 2016 [The UN Sustainable Development Goals and Russia: Human Development Report 2016 in the Russian Federation]. Moscow: Analiticheskiy tsentr pri Pravitel'stve Rossiyskoy Federatsii (Analytical Centre of the Government of the Russian Federation. P. 151–173). (In Russ.). URL: http://ac.gov.ru/files/publication/a/11068.pdf

Kak preodolet' otstavaniye Rossii po prodolzhitel'nosti zhizni [How to overcome the backlog of Russia in life expectancy]. (2016) Demographic Review 2(3), 154-201. (In Russ.). DOI: https://doi.org/10.17323/demreview.v2i3.1778

Klepikova E.A. and M.G. Kolosnitsyna (2017). Ageism at the Russian Labour Market: Wage Discrimination. Russian Management Journal 15 (1): 69-88. (In Russ.). URL: https://publications.hse.ru/mirror/pubs/share/direct/211147500

Kudrin A. and Е. Gurvich (2012). Stareniye naseleniya i ugroza byudzhetnogo krizisa [Population aging and the threat of a budget crisis] Voprozy ekonomiki [Economic issues]. 3: 52–89. DOI: https://doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2012-3-52-79.

Levada Center (2018). Press Release September 27: Pensionnaya reforma [Pension Reform]. URL: https://www.levada.ru/2018/09/27/pensionnaya-reforma-4/

OECD (2017). Pensions at a Glance 2017: OECD and G20 Indicators, OECD Publishing, Paris. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1787/pension_glance-2017-en

Pension & Actuarial Consulting and Russian Association of Non-State Pension Funds (2017). Pension Savings in Russia. Results of 2016 and interim results of 2017. (In Russ.). URL: http://p-a-c.ru/124237

Remington T.F. (2018). Institutional change in authoritarian regimes: Pension reform in Russia and China // Problems of Post-Communism (online edition). URL: https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/10758216.2018.1450154

Schwarz A.M., Aria O.S., Zviniene A., Rudolph H.P, Escardt S., Koetti J., Immervoll H., Abels M. (2014). The inverted pyramid: Pension systems facing demographic challenges in Europe and Central Asia // Europe and Central Asia Reports. Washington DC: The World Bank. URL: http://www.worldbank.org/content/dam/Worldbank/Feature%20Story/ECA/ECA-Pensions-Report-2014.pdf

Shulgin S.G., Zinkina Yu.V., S.Ya. Scherbov S.Ya. (2018). Ozhidayemaya prodolzhitel'nost' zhizni pozhilykh v Rossii v zavisimosti ot obrazovatel'nogo statusa [Life expectancy of the elderly in Russia depending on the educational status]. Demographic Review 5(1) 25:38. (In Russ.). doi: https://doi.org/10.17323/demreview.v5i1.7708

Tyuryukanova E. (2006). Deshevyy trud – mif ili real’nost’ [Cheap labor - myth or reality?] (In Russ.). Demoscope-Weekly 315-316. URL: http://www.demoscope.ru/weekly/2008/0315/tema05.php

United Nations (2017). World population prospects. The 2017 revision. URL: https://population.un.org/wpp/

United Nations (2019). Тhe 2019 Revision of World Population Prospects. The 2019 Revision. URL: https://population.un.org/wpp/

Vishnevkiy A.G., Ya.I. Kuz'minov, V.I. Shevskiy, S.V. Shishkin, L.I. Yakobson, Ye.G. Yasin (2006). Rossiyskoye zdravookhraneniye: kak vyyti iz krizisa. Doklad gosudarstvennogo universiteta - Vysshaya shkola ekonomiki. [Russian health care: how to get out of the crisis]. Paper of the National Research University - Higher School of Economics] Мoscow: NIU–VShE. (In Russ.). URL: https://www.hse.ru/data/309/462/1237/Доклад_росс%20здравоохранение_2006.pdf

Yermo, J. (2012). The role of funded pensions in retirement income systems: Issues for the Russian Federation. OECD Working Papers on Finance, Insurance and Private Pensions, No. 27, Paris: OECD Publishing. URL: https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/finance-and-investment/the-role-of-funded-pensions-in-retirement-income-systems_5k9180xv25xw-en

Опубликован
2020-10-01
Как цитировать
IvanovS. (2020). Pension reform 2019: determinants, consequences, alternatives. Демографическое обозрение, 6(5), 4-44. https://doi.org/10.17323/demreview.v6i5.11459
Раздел
Оригинальные статьи