Road traffic mortality in Russia: definitions, trends and perspectives
Аннотация
In 2016, the crude death rate from road traffic accidents in Russia decreased, according to police data, to a level not observed since 1971, after which it continued to decline. The positive trends apparently served as the basis for the optimistic goals laid down in the Road Safety Strategy for 2018-2024.
Based on police data, vital statistics on mortality and international databases on mortality and road safety, the authors try to answer these questions: Are the goals set achievable within the specified timeframe, and how consistent are they with European trends in road traffic mortality, as well as with Russia's present differentiation of road traffic mortality by space, age and category of road users?
The study showed that the deadlines for achieving targets in the Road Safety Strategy are very tight. Today, only large and medium-sized cities have the potential to implement a new Road Safety Strategy in which the crude death rate should not exceed 1.5-2 deaths per 100 thousand people by 2024, whereas in small cities and rural settlements - 2.5-3 deaths per 100 thousand people. For many years, the main risk groups have been drivers and passengers aged 15-44 and pedestrians over 60 years old, who do not appear in the Road Safety Strategy as priority categories.
In addition, the article shows that in order to eliminate the existing discrepancies between the numbers of deaths published by the two official reporting systems (the police and Rosstat), the very first step might be for Rosstat to stop calculating the number of road traffic deaths based on the current version of the abridged classification of causes of death and transition to one of the two international approaches for aggregating three-digit codes of causes of death used by the WHO.
Скачивания
Литература
Bakanov K.S. (2019, May). Improvement of statistics on fatalities in road accidents. Report presented at the meeting of the working group on monitoring key road safety indicators in the Russian Federation, WHO Regional office for Europe, Russia, Moscow. (In Russ.).
Burtsev A.А., Kirzhanova V.V., Grigorova N.I., Bakanov K.S. (2019). Main trends of medical examination indicators on the state of drinking in the Russian Federation in 2004-2017. Narcology,18(4), 3-17. doi: 10.25557/1682-8313.2019.04.3-17 (In Russ.).
Danilova I., Shkolnikov V.M., Jdanov D.A., Meslé F., Vallin J. (2016) Identifying potential differences in cause-of-death coding practices across Russian regions. Population health metrics, 14(8), 1-20. doi:10.1186/s12963-016-0078-0
Danilova I.A. (2015). Specific features of the reconstruction of continuous cause-specific mortality time-series for Russia. Voprosy statistiki, 11, 58-68. doi: 10.34023/2313-6383-2015-0-11-58-68 (In Russ.).
European Commission (2017). Annual accident report 2017. European Commission, Directorate General for Transport. URL: https://ec.europa.eu/transport/road_safety/sites/roadsafety/files/pdf/statistics/dacota/asr2017.pdf (13.09.2019)
Eurostat (2019). Regions and cities; People killed in road accidents (per 10000 population) — 2017. Available at https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/cache/RCI/#?vis=city.statistics&lang=en (22.04.2019)
Federal State Statistics Service (2017). The Demographic Yearbook of Russia 2017. Statistical handbook. Moscow: Rosstat.
IRTAD (2018). Road safety annual report 2018. International traffic safety data and analysis group. URL: https://www.itf-oecd.org/sites/default/files/docs/irtad-road-safety-annual-report-2018_2.pdf (13.09.2019)
Luneev V.V. (2005) Prestupnost XX veka: mirovye, regionalnye i rossijskie tendencii. Moscow: Voltet Kluver.
Meslé F., Shkolnikov V., Hertrich V., Vallin, J. (1996). Recent trends in mortality by causes of death in Russia during 1965-1994. Paris-Moscow. URL: http://www.demoscope.ru/weekly/knigi/shkol/shkol.html (In Russ.) (13.09.2019)
Murray CJL, Lopez A.D. (eds.). (1996). The Global Burden of Disease and Injury 1: A comprehensive assessment of mortality and disability from diseases, injuries, and risk factors in 1990 and projected to 2020. London, UK: Harvard University Press on behalf of the World Health Organization and World Bank.
Naghavi M., Makela S., Foreman K. et al. (2010). Algorithms for enhancing public health utility of national causes-of-death data. Population health metrics, 8(1), 9.
doi: 10.1186/1478-7954-8-9
New economic school (2019). Russian Fertility and Mortality Database. Russia, causes of death, 5-year age groups, 1959-1988; Russia and regions, causes of death, 5-year age groups, 1989-1998 . Available at http://demogr.nes.ru/index.php/ru/demogr_indicat/data
(22.04.2019).
Pridemore W., Chamlin M. B., Kaylen M. T., Andreev E. (2013). The impact of a national alcohol policy on deaths due to transport accidents in Russia. Addiction, 108, 2112–2118. doi:10.1111/add.12311
Pyankova A.I, Fattakhov T.A., Bakanov K., Yurasova E.D. (2019). Road traffic mortality in Moscow: record linkage study using police data and vital statistics. Demographic review, 6(1), 151-176. doi: 10.17323/demreview.v6i1.9115. (In Russ.)
UN Road Safety Collaboration (2010). White paper for safe roads in 2050. Achieving Zero Work-Related Road Deaths. URL: https://www.who.int/roadsafety/events/unrsc_12_appendix_11.pdf (13.09.2019)
UNECE UN (2009). The Glossary for Transport Statistics. Retrieved from https://www.unece.org/fileadmin/DAM/trans/main/wp6/pdfdocs/glossen4.pdf (13.09.2019)
Vishnevsky A.G., Andreev E.M., Timonin S.A. (2016). Mortality from cardiovascular diseases and life expectancy in Russia. Demographic review, 3(1), 6-34. doi:10.17323/demreview.v3i1.1761. (In Russ.).
World health organization (WHO) (2014). WHO methods and data sources for country‐level causes of death 2000‐2012. Geneva: WHO. URL: https://www.who.int/healthinfo/global_burden_disease/GlobalCOD_method_2000_2012.pdf (13.09.2019)
World health organization (WHO) (2018b). WHO methods and data sources for country-level causes of death 2000-2016. Geneva. URL: http://terrance.who.int/mediacentre/data/ghe/GlobalCOD_method_2000_2016.pdf?ua=1 (13.09.2019)
World health organization (WHO) (2018а). Global status report on road safety 2018. Geneva.
