Демографический переход и гипотеза гиперболического роста населения
Аннотация
В статье анализируется трактовка демографического перехода сторонниками гипотезы гиперболического роста населения. Автор приходит к выводу, что за последние два-три десятилетия в работах ряда российских и некоторых зарубежных авторов, разделяющих эту гипотезу, получила развитие система представлений о закономерностях демографического развития и о демографическом переходе как современном этапе этого развития, альтернативная общепринятой. Задача статьи заключается не столько в том, чтобы выразить несогласие с предложенной альтернативой, сколько в том, чтобы показать отличие содержащихся в ней подходов и их следствий от уже сложившихся представлений. В то же время автор выражает критическое отношение к ряду постулатов, на которых основывается гипотеза гиперболического закона, прежде всего к лежащему в ее основе постулату самодостаточности демографического роста и его независимости от внешних условий.
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