The epidemiological transition and its interpretations

  • Anatoly Vishnevsky National Research University Higher School of Economics
Ключевые слова: epidemiological transition, epidemiological revolution, demographic transition, sanitary transition, stages of epidemiological transition, cardiovascular revolution, probability of death, average age of death


A critical analysis of A. Omran's theory of epidemiological transition (ET) and its various interpretations. The periodization of ET proposed by Omran is questioned, and the differentiation of the two "epidemiological revolutions" by M. Terris is compared with it. The great world historical significance of ET as a trigger and an integral part of the demographic transition as a whole is noted, and disagreement with the interpretation of ET as an integral part of the “sanitary transition” is substantiated. The concept of the "cardiovascular revolution" is contested. A method of graphical representation of ET is proposed and criteria for its completion are discussed. Grounds are given for disagreement with ideas about the "first", Neolithic, and coming "third" ET, as well as about a "reverse" ET. The problems of “catching-up” ET in developing countries are considered.


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Vishnevsky, A. (2021). The epidemiological transition and its interpretations. Демографическое обозрение, 7(5), 4-41.
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