Динамика внутренней миграции в развитых странах: обзор исследований
Аннотация
Уже более полувека в США, в течение десятилетий – в ряде других стран отмечается снижение внутренней миграции и иных форм пространственной мобильности населения, что нашло отражение во многих исследованиях по достаточно обширному ряду стран. Цель данной статьи – познакомить российского читателя с академическими дебатами на данную тему в западной литературе, дать представление о факторах, определяющих не только снижение миграционной активности населения, но и противостоящих ему. Приводимые в статье многочисленные примеры известных и часто цитируемых работ показывают, что среди исследователей нет единого мнения ни на масштабы изменений внутренней миграции в отдельных странах, ни тем более на их причины. Данный обзор также демонстрирует, что, помимо долговременных причин динамики частоты переездов, действуют «шоковые» факторы, влияние которых также нельзя игнорировать.
С одной стороны, исследования показывают, что динамика миграции связана с фундаментальными процессами в обществе и экономике (старение, модели взросления, динамика неравенств и др.), с другой – по мере превращения их в устойчивые тренды эти изменения сами меняют общество, постепенно превращая его из мобильного в более оседлое. В статье также кратко описывается взгляд зарубежных исследователей на иммобильность и важность ее изучения.
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