Микропереписи населения России: прошлое, настоящее и будущее

  • Анастасия Ивановна Пьянкова Национальный Исследовательский Университет «Высшая Школа Экономики» http://orcid.org/0000-0002-2633-2789
  • Екатерина Михайловна Щербакова Национальный Исследовательский Университет «Высшая Школа Экономики» http://orcid.org/0000-0001-5916-8869
  • Сергей Алексеевич Васин Национальный Исследовательский Университет «Высшая Школа Экономики» http://orcid.org/0000-0003-3647-9247
Ключевые слова: история микропереписей населения, вопросы микропереписи, выборка, качество данных

Аннотация

Прослежена история трех микропереписей населения, проведенных в России в 1985, 1994 и 2015 годах. Выделены их организационно-методологические характеристики, программные особенности. Поскольку микропереписи дают большее поле для исследований по сравнению сo всеобщими переписями населения, особое внимание уделено тому, какое отражение итоги микропереписей нашли в научных исследованиях и какие были получены выводы на их основе.

Более пристальное внимание уделено микропереписи населения 2015 г. (МПН-2015). Выявлены отклонения выборки МПН-2015 по регионально-территориальной структуре от постоянного населения России. Из-за значительной вариативности объема выборки по регионам пострадала репрезентативность данных по стране в целом, наблюдается смещенность социально-демографических и географических характеристик населения. Сопоставление численности и структуры населения по МПН-2015 с данными текущего учета и всеобщих переписей населения, оценка возрастной аккумуляции показали наличие серьезных проблем с качеством полученных данных, а также наличие типичных для всеобщих переписей ошибок. Акцентируется внимание на смещении в старшие возраста структуры населения по МПН-2015, что может повлиять на оценку общих показателей образования, экономической активности, заболеваемости, инвалидности, демографического состава домохозяйств и других переменных, для которых существует тесная связь с возрастом, что в целом может отразиться на востребованности данных МПН-2015. В заключении, обращаясь к опыту микропереписей и социально-демографических обследований в зарубежных странах, а также выборочным обследованиям Росстата по социально-демографическим проблемам, поставлен вопрос о перспективах развития данного метода статистико-демографического наблюдения в России.

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Опубликован
2018-08-21
Как цитировать
Пьянкова, А., Щербакова, Е., & Васин, С. (2018). Микропереписи населения России: прошлое, настоящее и будущее. Демографическое обозрение, 5(2), 61-102. https://doi.org/10.17323/demreview.v5i2.7935
Раздел
Оригинальные статьи