Alexander Kulischer on the demographic future of Russia

Ключевые слова: history of demography, demographic transition, demographic revolution, demographic dynamics, fertility, mortality, population of Russia, Alexander Kulischer


In the late 1920s and early 1930s, Alexander Kulischer published three demographic articles in the most authoritative and widely read newspaper of the Russian post-revolutionary emigration – “Poslednie novosti” [The Latest News] (Paris). These articles were devoted to problems of population dynamics in some countries around the world. They were the first where the general scheme of demographic changes – now known as the concept of a “demographic transition” or “demographic revolution” – was used in predicting the demographic future of Russia. This publication provides these articles, which are now almost inaccessible to contemporary readers. A preface and helpful explanations have been added to the articles. The preface explains Kulischer’s articles in the context of the development of demography of that period and his interest in the demographic future of Russia.


Данные скачивания пока не доступны.


Carr-Saunders A.M. (1931). The coming drop in population // The Observer (London). 12 July: 17.

Correspondent. (1931). The decline of the birth rate // The journal of the American Medical Association. 97(20): 1477-1488.

Cox H. (1922). The problem of population. London: Jonathan Cape. 198 p.

Demograficheskaya modernizatsiya Rossii, 1900-2000 [Demographic modernization of Russia, 1900-2000] (2006) / A.G. Vishnevsky, ed. Moscow: Novoye izdatel’stvo [New Publishing House]. 608 p.

Dioneo [Shklovsky I.V.]. (1928). K dobru ili k khudu? [For better or for worse?] // Poslednie novosti [The Latest News] (Paris). 29 January: 2.

Doykov Yu.V. (2004). Samyye znamenityye istoriki Rossii [The most famous Russian historians]. Moscow: Veche. 384 p.

Doykov Yu.V. (2009). Pitirim Sorokin. Chelovek vne sezona. Biografiya [Pitirim Sorokin. Man out of season. Biography]. Vol. 2. Arkhangelsk. 488 p. URL: (accessed: 08.02.2018).

Hodgson D. (1993). Demography as social science and policy science // Population and Development Review. 9(1): 1-34.

Ipsen C. (1996). Dictating demography: the problem of population in Fascist Italy. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press. 281 p.

Junius [Kulisher A.M.]. (1927). Kuda idet chelovechestvo? [Where is humankind heading?] // Poslednie novosti [The Latest News] (Paris). 10 September: 3; republished in: Demograficheskoe obozrenie [Demographic Review]. 2017. 4(4): 173-176. DOI: (accessed: 08.02.2018).

Junius [Kulisher A.M.]. (1928). «Vymiranie» [Extinction] // Poslednie novosti [The Latest News] (Paris). 8 February: 2.

Junius [Kulisher A.M.]. (1931). Tsikl naseleniya [Population cycle] // Poslednie novosti [The Latest News] (Paris). 17 July: 2.

Junius [Kulisher A.M.]. (1932). Budushcheye chelovechestva [The future of humankind] // Poslednie novosti [The Latest News] (Paris). 2 April: 3.

Kahn E. (1930). Der Internationale Geburtenstreik: Umfang, Ursachen, Wirkungen, Gegenmaßnahmen? Frankfurt am Main: Societäts-Verlag. 218 s.

Kuczynski R.R. (1928). The balance of births and deaths. Vol. I: Western and Northern Europe. New York: Macmillan. 170 p.

Kuczynski R.R. (1931). The balance of births and deaths. Vol. II: Eastern and Southern Europe. Washington DC: The Brookings Institution. 140 p.

Kuczynski R.R. (1935). The measurement of population growth: methods and results. London: Sidgwick and Jackson. 255 p.

Kulischer A., Е. Kulischer (1932). Kriegs- und Wanderzüge. Weltgeschichte als Völkerbewegung. Berlin ‒ Leipzig: Walter de Gruyter. 238 s.

Kulischer E.M. (1948). Europe on the move: war and population changes, 1917-1947. New York: Columbia University Press. 377 p.

Kulischer J.M. (2004). Istoriya ekonomicheskogo byta Zapadnoy Evropy [History of economic life in Western Europe]. 9th ed. Chelyabinsk: Sotsium. 1030 p. For the first German edition of the book prepared by the author himself, see: Kulischer J.M. (1928-1929). Allgemeine Wirtschaftsgeschichte des Mittelalters und der Neuzeit. Bd. I-II. München – Berlin: R. Oldenbourg. 351 s + 553 s.

Kulischer M.I. (1887). Ocherki sravnitel’noy etnografii i kul’tury [Essays on comparative ethnography and culture]. St. Petersburg: Tipografiya I.N. Skorokhodova [Print shop I.N. Skorokhodov]. 290 p.

Meisner D.I. (1966). Mirazhi i deystvitel’nost’: zapiski emigranta [Mirages and reality: notes of an émigré]. Moscow: APN. 298 p.

Methorst H.W. (1927a). Results of differential birth rate in The Netherlands // Proceedings of the World Population Conference / Sanger M., ed. London: Edward Arnold: 169-190.

Methorst H.W. (1927b). Survey of birth-rates of the World // Eugenic Review. 19(2): 116–127.

Psevdonimy russkogo zarubezh’ia [Pseudonyms of the Russian Diaspora] (2016) / M. Schruba, O. Korostelev, eds. Moscow: NLO. 656 p.

Raeff M. (1990). Russia abroad: a cultural history of the Russian emigration. 1919-1939. New York: Oxford University Press. 239 p.

Ross E.A. (1909). Changing America. New York: Chautaugua Press. 236 p.

Rosset E. (1964). Aging process of population. Oxford: Pergamon Press. 478 p.

Scifres D. (1964). Consideration of Edward A. Ross as a progressive in the 1920’s. Thesis (M.A.). University of Wisconsin – Madison. 194 p.

Smith A. (1981). An inquiry into the nature and causes of the wealth of nations. Vol. 1. Indianapolis, IN: Liberty Classics. 543 p.

Sutherland A. (1898). The origin and growth of the moral instinct. Vol. 1. London: Longmans, Green, and Co. 461 p.

Szreter S. (1993). The idea of demographic transition and the study of fertility change: a critical intellectual history // Population and Development Review. 19(4): 659-701.

Thompson W.S. (1929). Population // American Journal of Sociology. 34(6): 959-975.

Tolts M. (2015). Zabytyy entsiklopedist: Mikhail Ignat’evich Kulisher [A forgotten polymath: Mikhail I. Kulischer] (1847-1919) // Yevreyskaya starina [Jewish antiquity]. 2. URL: (accessed: 08.02.2018).

Tolts M. (2017). Pervaya vsemirnaya konferentsiya po narodonaseleniyu glazami dvukh russkikh uchastnikov-emigrantov [Thе first world population conference through the eyes of two Russian emigrant participants] // Demograficheskoe obozrenie [Demographic Review]. 4(4): 170-190. DOI: (accessed: 08.02.2018).

Vishnevsky A.G. (2005). Izbrannye demograficheskie trudy [Selected demographic works]. Vol. I. Moscow: Nauka. 368 p.

Vishnevsky A., M. Tolts (2015). An unnoticed contribution to demographic transition theory // Demographic Review. English Selection. 2: 62-81. DOI:

Volkov A.G. (2014). Izbrannyye demograficheskiye trudy [Selected demographic works]. Moscow: Izd. dom Vysshey shkoly ekonomiki [HSE Publishing House]. 567 p.

Как цитировать
Tolts, M. (2017). Alexander Kulischer on the demographic future of Russia. Демографическое обозрение, 4(5), 133-150.
Без названия