Fertility intentions in Russia: motivation and constraints
Abstract
This article examines the role of the various factors that influence the decision to have a child. The focus is on the reasons for deciding to have or not to have a (another) child and the socio-economic and socio-psychological factors influencing the postponement of childbearing.
A quantitative and qualitative assessment suggests that the desired family size in Russia remains relatively stable: women and men desire, on average, two children. The expected family size among Russian women and men also remains high, on average, nearly two children. The data of focus groups revealed an increasing polarization between those who intend to have only one child and those who intend to have a large family.
The study identified the main motivations to have another child - parents want their children not to feel lonely and to learn to care for the younger children. This provides, according to parents, more guarantees of support from children in old age. No less important are the intentions of men and women to strengthen their families and the desire of the spouse / partner to have another child. A family’s economic and social capabilities and support from the government are essential in realizing fertility intentions. Socio-psychological factors, such as marital/ partnership instability and unwillingness of a spouse / partner to have a (another) child, have a key impact on the postponement of childbearing.
Downloads
References
Andreev E.M., Bondarskaya G.A. (2000). Mozhno li ispol'zovat' dannyye ob ozhidayemom chisle detey v prognoze chislennosti naseleniya? [Is it possible to use data on expected number of children at the population forecasting?]. Voprosy Statistiki, 11, 56-62. (In Russ.).
Antonov A.I. (2009). Padeniye rozhdayemosti, krizis sem'i i neizbezhnost' depopulyatsii v Evrope v pervoy polovine 21 veka (sotsiologicheskiy podkhod) [Fertility decline, family crisis, and inevitability of depopulation in Europe in the first half of the 21st century (sociological approach)]. Demographic studies, 6, 3-5. (In Russ.).
Arkhangelskiy V.N. (2006). Faktory rozhdayemosti [Fertility factors]. M.: TEIS (In Russ.)
Arkhangelskiy V.N. (2018). Rozhdayemost' i reproduktivnoye povedeniye v Rossii period aktivizatsii podderzhki semey s det'mi [Fertility and reproductive behavior in Russia in the period of activating the support of families with children] // Demograficheskaya i semeynaya politika v kontekste tseley ustoychivogo razvitiya. Sbornik statey IX Ural'skogo demograficheskogo foruma, Vol. 1. Yekaterinburg: Institut ekonomiki UrO RAN (In Russ.)
Balbo N., Billari F.C., Mills M. (2013). Fertility in advanced societies: A review of research. European Journal of Population/Revue européenne de Démographie, 29 (1), 1-38.
Belova V.A. (1975). Chislo detey v sem'ye [The number of children in the family]. M.: Statistika. (In Russ.).
Bodrova V. (1997). Reproduktivnyye oriyentatsii naseleniya Rossii [Reproductive orientations of Russia's Population]. Monitoring of public opinion: economic and social changes, (3), 44-47. (In Russ.).
Bodrova V. (1999). Reproduktivnyye ustanovki rossiyan kak barometr sotsial'no-ekonomicheskikh protsessov [Reproductive attitudes of Russian citizens as a barometer of socio-economic processes]. Monitoring of public opinion: economic and social changes, 4 (42), 35-41. (In Russ.).
Bongaarts J. (2001). Fertility and reproductive preferences in post-transitional societies. Population and Development Review, 27, 260-281.
Borisov V.A. (1997). Zhelayemoye chislo detey v rossiyskikh sem'yakh po dannym mikroperepisi naseleniya Rossii 1994 goda [The desired number of children in Russian families on data microcensus 1994]. Vestnik Moskovskogo universiteta. Sotsiologiya i politologiya, 18 (2), 29-64. (In Russ.).
Caldwell J.C. (1982). Theory of Fertility Decline. London: Academic Press.
Coombs L.C. (1979). Reproductive goals and achieved fertility: A fifteen-year perspective. Demography, 16 (4), 523-534.
Frejka T., Zakharov S. (2014). Evolyutsiya rozhdayemosti v Rossii za polveka: optika uslovnykh i real'nykh pokoleniy [Fertility trends in Russia during the past half century: period and cohort perspectives]. Demographic Review, 1(1), 106-143. (In Russ.).
Golovlyanitsina E.B. (2007). Rol' sotsial'no-psikhologicheskikh faktorov v reproduktivnykh namereniyakh [The role of socio-psychological factors in reproductive intentions]. In T. M. Maleva, O. V. Sinyavskaya (Eds.) Roditeli i deti, muzhchiny i zhenshchiny v sem'ye i obshchestve [Parents and children, men and women in the family and society], Vol. 1. M.: NISP, 217-250. (In Russ.).
Iacovou M., Tavares L.P. (2011). Yearning, learning, and conceding: Reasons men and women change their childbearing intentions. Population and development review, 37 (1), 89-123.
Jaffe D., Kogan L., Manor O., Gielchinsky Y., Dior U., Laufer N. (2015). Influence of late-age births on maternal longevity. Annals of epidemiology, 25 (6), 387-391.
Kohler H.-P. (2001). Fertility and social interactions: An economic perspective. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
Liefbroer A.C. (2009). Changes in family size intentions across young adulthood: A life-course perspective. European Journal of Population/Revue européenne de Démographie, 25 (4), 363-386.
McLanahan S. (2004). Diverging destinies: How children are faring under the second demographic transition. Demography, 41 (4), 607-627.
Morgan S.P. (1985). Individual and couple intentions for more children: A research note. Demography, 22 (1), 125-132.
Morgan S.P. (2001). Should fertility intentions inform fertility forecasts. In The Direction of Fertility in the United States (pp. 153-165). U.S. Census Bureau Conference.
Morgan S.P., Rackin H. (2010). The correspondence between fertility intentions and behavior in the United States. Population and Development Review, 36 (1), 91-118.
Mosher W.D., Jones J., Abma J.C. (2012). Intended and Unintended Births in the United States: 1982–2010. National Health Statistics Reports 55, July 2012.
Philipov D. (2009). Fertility intentions and outcomes: the role of policies to close the gap. European Journal of Population/Revue européenne de Démographie, 25 (4), 355.
Ryder, N.B., Westoff, C.F. (1967). The trend of expected parity in the United States: 1955, 1960, 1965. Population Index, 153-168.
Rindfuss R. R., Morgan S.P., Swicegood G. (1988). First Births in America: Changes in the Timing of Parenthood. Berkeley: University of California Press.
Schmidt L., Sobotka T., Bentzen J.G., Nyboe Andersen A. (2011). Demographic and medical consequences of the postponement of parenthood. Human Reproduction Update, 18, (1), 29-43.
Selvaratnam T. (2014). The Big Lie: Motherhood, Feminism, and the Reality of the Biological Clock. Amherst, NY: Prometheus Books.
Sinyavskaya O.V., Tyndik A.O. (2009). Rozhdayemost' v sovremennoy Rossii: ot planov k deystviyam? In T.M. Maleva, O.V. Sinyavskaya (Eds.) Roditeli i deti, muzhchiny i zhenshchiny v sem'ye i obshchestve [Parents and children, men and women in the family and society], Vol. 2. M.: NISP, 9-44.
Sobotka T., Beaujouan É. (2014). Two Is best? The persistence of a two-child family ideal in Europe. Population and Development Review, 40 (3), 391-419.
Tyndik A.O. (2012). Reproduktivnyye ustanovki i ikh realizatsiya v sovremennoy Rossii [Reproductive attitudes and their realization in modern Russia]. The Journal of Social Policy Studies, 10 (3), 361-376.
van Peer C., Rabušic L. (2008). Will we Witness an Upturn in European Fertility in the Near Future? In People, Population Change and Policies (pp. 215-241). Springer, Dordrecht.
Voas D. (2003). Conflicting preferences: a reason fertility tends to be too high or too low. Population and Development Review, 29 (4), 627-646.
Vyborochnot nabludenit reproductivnykh planov naselenia (2012) [The sample survey of the reproductive plans of population]. Federalnaya sluzhba gosudarstvennoi statistiki. URL: https://www.gks.ru/free_doc/new_site/RPN/Publisher/index.html (data downloaded on 29.11.2019). (In Russ.).
Vyborochnot nabludenit reproductivnykh planov naselenia (2017) [The sample survey of the reproductive plans of population]. Federalnaya sluzhba gosudarstvennoi statistiki. URL: https://www.gks.ru/free_doc/new_site/RPN17/index.html (data downloaded on 29.11.2019). (In Russ.).
Westoff C.F. (1990). Reproductive intentions and fertility rates. International Family Planning Perspectives, 16 (3), 84-96.
Westoff C.F., Ryder N.B. (1977). The predictive validity of reproductive intentions. Demography, 14 (4), 431-453.
Zakharov S., Churilova E., Agadjanian V. (2016). Rozhdayemost' v povtornykh soyuzakh v Rossii: pozvolyayet li vstupleniye v novyy supruzheskiy soyuz dostich' ideala dvukhdetnoy sem'i? [Fertility in higher-order marital unions in Russia: does a new partnership allow for the realization of the two-child ideal?]. Demographic Review, 3 (1), 35-51. (In Russ.).
Zakharov S.V., A.G. Vishnevsky, V.I. Sakevich (2006). Chast’ 3. Modernizatsia rozhdaemosti [Part 3. Modernization of fertility] In A.G. Vishnevsky (ed.), Demograficheskaia modernizatsiia Rossii, 1900-2000 [Demographic modernization of Russia] (pp. 149-254). Moscow: Novoe izdatel’stvo. (In Russ.).
Zakharov S.V. (2012). Kakoy budet rozhdayemost' v Rossii? [What will be fertility in Russia?]. Demoscope weekly, 23, 495-497.
Zemlyanova E.V., Chumarina V.Zh. (2018). Otkladyvaniye detorozhdeniya rossiyskimi zhenshchinami v sovremennykh sotsial'no-ekonomicheskikh usloviyakh. [Births' postponement by women in Russia within modern socio-economic context]. Sotsial'nyye aspekty zdorov'ya naseleniya, 64(6). URL: http://vestnik.mednet.ru/content/view/1031/30/lang,ru/ (accessed 10.12.2019).