On the quality of the federal statistical observation of migration processes
Abstract
The article deals with the main problems inherent in the methodology of statistical observation of long-term migration flows introduced by Rosstat in 2011. The changes in the methodology of migration flow statistics, the reasons for them and their possible impact on the volume and structure of flows within the post-Soviet period are described in historical retrospective. The article describes in detail the situation that has developed in Russian migration statistics in recent years, in which statistics have begun to consider as migrants not only persons registered at their place of residence, but also those who were registered at a place of temporary stay for a period of 9 months and more. Changes in the criteria of migrant status have led to significant shifts in the indicators of international and internal migration. The volume of registered migration has increased and the structural characteristics of flows have changed, primarily in terms of directions of migration and citizenship of migrants. The article focuses on international migration statistics, since the consequences of using the new data collection principles were most pronounced in this segment of statistics.
It is concluded that the modern methodology of data collection is based on a number of controversial assumptions, the validity of which has not been verified empirically. As a possible interim solution it is proposed to establish cooperation between Rosstat and migration authorities to jointly conduct selective inspection of information possessed by the Ministry of Internal Affairs, in order to verify its validity and assess the extent of errors that the new migrant accounting methodology may cause.
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References
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