Body mass index dynamics of Russian men and women: age–period–cohort analysis
Abstract
Using the Russia Longitudinal Monitoring survey (RLMS-HSE) 1994–2018 thes paper presents assessments of the individual dynamics of body mass index (BMI) of Russian men and women for 1994-2018. The panel data made it possible to assess the individual dynamics of respondents' BMI without a significant contribution of the cross-sectional component to the age profile of BMI that could take place within the framework of some age–period–cohort econometric models. Empirical estimates revealed a monotonic increase in the BMI of men in 2001–2011. We show that the BMI of women grows during their life up to 60 years old, and that of men – up to about 40 years old. It was also revealed that there is a tendency for the growth of BMI in younger generations of men. For women, this growth is replaced by a decline that began with the generation of women born in 1950. The estimates of the BMI profiles of men and women in three dimensions (age–period–cohort) obtained in this paper can serve the purposes of improving policy in the field of public health protection.
Downloads
References
Afshin A., Forouzanfar M.H., Reitsma M.B., Sur P., Estep K., Lee A., ... Murray C.J.L. (2017). Health effects of overweight and obesity in 195 countries over 25 years. New England Journal of Medicine, 377(1), 13-27. DOI: 10.1056/NEJMoa1614362
Aistov A. 2018. Age-earnings profiles of different generations. Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), 50, 23-42. (In Russ.).
Arnold M., Leitzmann M., Freisling H., Bray F., Romieu I., Renehan A., Soerjomataram I. (2016). Obesity and cancer: An update of the global impact. Cancer Epidemiology, 41, 8-15. DOI: 10.1016/j.canep.2016.01.003
Badley E.M., Canizares M., Perruccio A.V., Hogg-Johnson S., Gignac M.A. (2015). Benefits gained, benefits lost: Comparing baby boomers to other generations in a longitudinal cohort study of self-rated health. Milbank Quarterly, 93(1), 40-72.
Bhaskaran K., Douglas I., Forbes H., dos Santos-Silva I., Leon D.A., Smeeth L. (2014). Body-mass index and risk of 22 specific cancers: a population-based cohort study of 5.24 million UK adults. The Lancet, 384 (9945), 755-65.
Bungum T., Satterwhite M., Jackson A. W., Morrow J., James R. (2003). The relationship of body mass index, medical costs, and job absenteeism. American Journal of Health Behavior, 27(4), 456-462.
Caman O.K., Calling S., Midlov P., Sundquist J., Sundquist K., Johansson S. (2013). Longitudinal age-and cohort trends in body mass index in Sweden – a 24-year follow-up study. BMC Public Health, 13, 893-893.
Castetbon K, Vernay M, Malon A, Salanave B, Deschamps V, Roudier C, Oleko A, Szego E, Hercberg S. (2009). Dietary intake, physical activity and nutritional status in adults: the French nutrition and health survey (ENNS, 2006-2007). British Journal of Nutrition, 102, 733-743.
Cawley J. (2004). The impact of obesity on wages. Journal of Human Resources, 39(2), 451-474. Retrieved from https://ideas.repec.Org/a/uwp/jhriss/v39y2004i2p451-474.html
Cheng F.W., Gao X., Mitchell D.C., Wood C., Still C.D., Rolston D., Jensen G.L. (2016). Body mass index and all-cause mortality among older adults. Obesity, 24 (10), 2232-2239. DOI: 10.1002/oby.21612
Cole T.J., Bellizzi M.C., Flegal K.M., Dietz W.H. (2000). Establishing a standard definition for child overweight and obesity worldwide: international survey. British Medical Journal, 320(7244), 1240-1243. DOI: 10.1136/bmj.320.7244.1240
Conley D., Glauber R. (2007). Gender, body mass, and socioeconomic status: new evidence from the PSID. Advances in health economics and health services research, 17, 253-275.
Danubio M.E., Miranda G., Vinciguerra M.G., Vecchi E., Rufo F. (2008). Comparison of self-reported and measured height and weight: implications for obesity research among young adults. Economics and human biology, 6(1), 181-90.
Dassonneville R. (2013). Questioning generational replacement. An age, period and cohort analysis of electoral volatility in the netherlands, 1971-2010. Electoral Studies, 32(1), 37-47. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2012.09.004
Di Angelantonio E., Bhupathiraju S.N., Wormser D., Gao P., Kaptoge S., Berrington de Gonzalez A., ... Hu F. B. (2016). Body-mass index and all-cause mortality: individual-participant-data meta-analysis of 239 prospective studies in four continents. The Lancet, 388(10046), 776-786.
Di Cesare M., Bentham J., Stevens G.A., Zhou B., Danaei G., Lu Y., ... NCD Risk Factor Collaboration (2016). Trends in adult body-mass index in 200 countries from 1975 to 2014: a pooled analysis of 1698 population-based measurement studies with 19.2 million participants. Lancet, 387(10026), 1377-1396.
Drøyvold W.B., Nilsen T.I.L., Kriiger O., Holmen T.L., Krokstad S., Midthjell K., Holmen J. (2006). Change in height, weight and body mass index: Longitudinal data from the HUNT study in Norway. International journal of obesity, 30, 935-939.
Ethan F., Christopher W, (2019). Analyzing Age-Period-Cohort Data: A Review and Critique. Annual Review of Sociology, 45(1), 467-492. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-soc-073018-022616
Farhat T., Iannotti R.J., Simons-Morton B.G. (2010). Overweight, obesity, youth, and health-risk behaviors. American Journal of Preventive Medicine, 38(3), 258-267.
Fu W. (2016). Constrained estimators and consistency of a regression model on a lexis diagram. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 111(513), 180-199. DOI: 10.1080/01621459.2014.998761
Godina E. (2011). Secular trends in some Russian populations. Anthropologischer Anzeiger, 68(4), 367-377.
Gordon-Larsen P., Wang H., Popkin B.M. (2014). Overweight dynamics in Chinese children and adults. Obesity Reviews, 15(S1), 37-48. DOI: 10.1111/obr.12121
Grigorieva M.A. (2015). Dynamics of Height, Weight and Body Mass Index of Real Generations of Russian People Aged 18-34 in 1810-1995. The Review of Economy, the Law and Sociology, 3, 198-202. (In Russ.).
Gu H., Shao S., Liu J., Fan Z., Chen Y., Ni J., ... Wang J. (2019). Age- and sex- associated impacts of body mass index on stroke type risk: A 27-year prospective cohort study in a low-income population in China. Frontiers in Neurology, 10, 1-9. DOI: 10.3389/fneur.2019.00456
Gurevich K.G., Poston W.S.C., Anders B., Ivkina M.A., Archangelskaya A., Jitnarin N., Starodubov V.I. (2017). Obesity prevalence and accuracy of BMI-defined obesity in Russian firefighters. Occupational Medicine, 67(1), 61-63. DOI: 10.1093/occmed/kqw136
Harrington M., Gibson S., Cottrell R.C. (2009). A review and meta-analysis of the effect of weight loss on all-cause mortality risk. Nutrition Research Reviews, 22(1), 93-108. DOI: 10.1017/S0954422409990035
Heo J., Beck A.N., Lin S.-F., Marcelli E., Lindsay S., Karl Finch B. (2018). Cohort-based income gradients in obesity among U.S. adults. American Journal of Human Biology, 30(2), e23084.
Holford T.R. (1983). The estimation of age, period and cohort effects for vital rates. Biometrics, 39(2), 311-324. DOI: 10.1016/0021-9681(85)90106-7
Hosseini M., Kelishadi R., Baikpour M., Ataei N., Qorbani M., Yousefifard M., ... Mohammad K. (2017). Age-period-cohort analysis of obesity and overweight in Iranian children and adolescents. International Journal of Endocrinology and Metabolism, 15(4), e13561. DOI: 10.5812/ijem.13561
Hu Y., Malyutina S., Pikhart H., Peasey A., Holmes M.V., Hubacek J., ... Bobak M. (2017). The relationship between body mass index and 10-year trajectories of physical functioning in middle-aged and older Russians: Prospective results of the Russian HAPIEE study. The Journal of Nutrition, Health and Aging, 21(4), 381-388.
Huffman S.K., Rizov M. (2007). Determinants of obesity in transition economies: The case of Russia. Economics and Human Biology, 5(3), 379-391.
Ivanova E.I. (2014). Structural and societal factors in health of Russian population. RSUH/RGGU Bulletin “Philosophy. Sociology. Art Studies” Series, 4, 138-155. (In Russ.).
Jaacks L., Gordon-Larsen P., Mayer-Davis E., Adair L., Popkin B. (2013). Age, period and cohort effects on adult body mass index and overweight from 1991 to 2009 in China: the China Health and Nutrition Survey. International journal of epidemiology, 42(3), 828-837.
Jiang T., Gilthorpe M., Shiely F., Harrington J., Perry I., Kelleher C., Tu Y.-K. (2013). Age-period-cohort analysis for trends in body mass index in Ireland. BMC Public Health, 13, 889-889.
Kalichman L., Livshits G., Kobyliansky E. (2006). Indices of body composition and chronic morbidity: A cross?sectional study of a rural population in central Russia. American Journal of Human Biology, 18(3), 350-358.
Kant A.K., Graubard B.I., Kumanyika S.K. (2007). Trends in Black–White Differentials in Dietary Intakes of U.S. Adults, 1971-2002. American Journal of Preventive Medicine, 32(4), 264-272.e1. DOI:10.1016/j.amepre.2006.12.011
Kawachi A., Shimazu T., Budhathoki S., Sawada N., Yamaji T., Iwasaki M., ... Tsugane S. (2019). Association of BMI and height with the risk of endometrial cancer, overall and by histological subtype: a population-based prospective cohort study in Japan. European Journal of Cancer Prevention, 28(3), 196-202.
Kline B., Tobias J.L. (2008). The wages of BMI: Bayesian analysis of a skewed treatment- response model with nonparametric endogeneity. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 23(6), 767-793.
Kolarzyk E., Pac A., Shpakou A., Kleszczewska E., Klimackaya L., Laskiene S. (2012a). Nutrition of overweight and obese students. Central European Journal of Medicine, 7(5), 665-671. DOI: 10.2478/s11536-012-0028-6
Kolarzyk E., Shpakou A., Kleszczewska E., Klimackaya L., Laskiene S. (2012b). Nutritional status and food choices among first year medical students. Central European Journal of Medicine, 7, 396-408. DOI: 10.2478/s11536-011-0167-1
Kolosnitsyna M.G., Berdnikova A.N. (2009). Overweight: what are its costs and what could be done? Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), 15(3), 72-93. (In Russ.).
Kolosnitsyna M.G., Kulikova O.A. (2018). Overweight: socioeconomic factors and consequences. Demographic Review, 5(4), 92-124. (In Russ.).
Kozyreva P., Kosolapov M., Popkin B.M. (2016). Data Resource Profile: The Russia Longitudinal Monitoring Survey – Higher School of Economics (RLMS-HSE) Phase II: Monitoring the Economic and Health Situation in Russia, 1994-2013. International Journal of Epidemiology, 45(2), 395-401. DOI: https://10.1093/ije/dyv357
Krul A.J., Daanen H.A.M., Choi H. (2010). Self-reported and measured weight, height and body mass index (BMI) in Italy, the Netherlands and North America. The European Journal of Public Health, 21(4), 414-419. DOI:10.1093/eurpub/ckp228
Kuczmarski M. F., Kuczmarski R.J., Najjar M. (2001). Effects of age on validity of self- reported height, weight, and body mass index: Findings from the Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, 1988-1994. Journal of the American Dietetic Association, 101(1), 28-34.
Kwok M.K., Tu Y.K., Kawachi I., Schooling C.M. (2017). Age-period-cohort analysis of trends in blood pressure and body mass index in children and adolescents in Hong Kong. Journal of epidemiology and community health, 71(12), 1161-1167.
Lainscak M., von Haehling S., Doehner W., Anker S. (2012). The obesity paradox in chronic disease: Facts and numbers. Journal of cachexia, sarcopenia and muscle, 3, 1-4. DOI: 10.1007/s13539-012-0059-5
Lambert A.A., Putcha N., Drummond M.B., Boriek A.M., Hanania N.A., Kim V., ... COPDGene Investigators (2017). Obesity is associated with increased morbidity in moderate to severe COPD. CHEST, 151(1), 68-77. DOI: 10.1016/j.chest.2016.08.1432
Ley C. J., Lees B., Stevenson J. C. (1992). Sex- and menopause-associated changes in body-fat distribution. The American Journal of Clinical Nutrition, 55(5), 950-954. DOI:10.1093/ajcn/55.5.950
Maruyama S., Nakamura S. (2018). Why are women slimmer than men in developed countries? Economics and Human Biology, 30, 1-13.
Mason, K. O., Mason, W. M., Winsborough, H. H., & Poole, W. K. (1973). Some methodological issues in cohort analysis of archival data. American Sociological Review, 38, 242-258.
Mironov B. (2003). Height and weight of Russians of the Stalin era. Demoscope Weekly, 129-130. (In Russ.). URL: http://demoscope.ru/weekly/2003/0129/
Mironov B. (2012). The welfare of the population and revolutions in imperial Russia: XVIII - early XX century. 2nd ed., Rev., Add. Moscow: Ves Mir Publishers. (In Russ.).
Mock C.N., Grossman D.C., Kaufman R.P., Mack C.D., Rivara F.P. (2002). The relationship between body weight and risk of death and serious injury in motor vehicle crashes. Accident Analysis and Prevention, 34(2), 221-228.
Must A., Dallal G., Dietz W. (1991a). Reference data for obesity: 85th and 95th percentiles of body mass index (wt/ht2) – a correction. The American Journal of Clinical Nutrition, 54(5), 773-773.
Must A., Dallal G., Dietz W. (1991b). Reference data for obesity: 85th and 95th percentiles of body mass index (wt/ht2) and triceps skinfold thickness. The American Journal of Clinical Nutrition, 53(4), 839-846.
Ng C., Corey P.N., Young T.K. (2012). Divergent body mass index trajectories between aboriginal and non-aboriginal canadians 1994-2009 4an exploration of age, period, and cohort effects. American Journal of Human Biology, 24 , 170-176.
Nooyens A.C., Visscher T.L., Verschuren W.M., Schuit A.J., Boshuizen H.C., van Mechelen W., Seidell J.C. (2009). Age, period and cohort effects on body weight and body mass index in adults: The Doetinchem Cohort Study. Public Health Nutrition, 12(6), 862-870. DOI: 10.1017/S1368980008003091
Ogden C.L., Carroll M.D., Lawman H.G., Fryar C.D., Kruszon-Moran D., Kit B.K., Flegal K.M. (2016). Trends in obesity prevalence among children and adolescents in the United States, 1988-1994 through 2013-2014. Journal of the American Medical Association, 315(21), 2292-2299. DOI: 10.1001/jama.2016.6361
Pelzer B., te Grotenhuis M., Eisinga R., Schmidt-Catran A.W. (2015). The nonuniqueness property of the intrinsic estimator in APC models. Demography, 52, 315-327.
Rodriguez C., Freedland S.J., Deka A., Jacobs E.J., McCullough M.L., Patel A.V., ... Calle E.E. (2007). Body mass index, weight change, and risk of prostate cancer in the Cancer Prevention Study II Nutrition Cohort. Cancer Epidemiology and Prevention Biomarkers, 16(1), 63-69.
Rosenquist J., Lehrer S.F., O'Malley A., Zaslavsky A., Smoller J., Christakis N. (2014). Cohort of birth modifies the association between FTO genotype and BMI. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 112, 354-359.
Roth L.W., Allshouse A.A., Lesh J., Polotsky A.J., Santoro N. (2013). The correlation between self-reported and measured height, weight, and BMI in reproductive age women. Maturitas, 76, 185-188.
Russia Longitudinal Monitoring survey, RLMS-HSE (2020), conducted by the National Research University Higher School of Economics and ZAO “Demoscope” together with Carolina Population Center, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill and the Institute of Sociology RAS. URL: https://www.hse.ru/rlms/spss (data downloaded on 17.03.2020).
StataCorp. (2019a). Stata graphics reference manual: Release 16. College Station, TX: A Stata Press Publication.
StataCorp. (2019b). Stata base reference manual: Release 16. College Station, TX: A Stata Press Publication.
Su S.-Y., Lee W.-C. (2019). Age-period-cohort analysis with a constant-relative-variation constraint for an apportionment of period and cohort slopes. PLoS ONE, 14(12). DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0226678
Twig G., Yaniv G., Levine H., Leiba A., Goldberger N., Derazne E., ... Kark J.D. (2016). Body-mass index in 2.3 million adolescents and cardiovascular death in adulthood. The New England Journal of Medicine, 374(25), 2430-2440.
Vandeschrick C. (2001). The Lexis diagram, a misnomer. Demographic Research, 4(3), 97¬124. DOI: 10.4054/DemRes.2001.4.3
Wahl S., Drong A., Lehne B., Loh M., Scott W.R., Kunze S., ... Chambers J.C. (2017). Epigenome-wide association study of body mass index, and the adverse outcomes of adiposity. Nature, 541(7635), 81-86. DOI: 10.1038/nature20784
Wang Y., Wang J. (2002). A comparison of international references for the assessment of child and adolescent overweight and obesity in different populations. European Journal of Clinical Nutrition, 56(10), 973-982. DOI: 10.1038/sj.ejcn.1601415
Wansink B., Cheney M., Chan N. (2003). Exploring comfort food preferences across age and gender1. Physiology & Behavior, 79(4-5), 739-747. DOI:10.1016/s0031-9384(03)00203-8
Wardle J., Haase A.M., Steptoe A., Nillapun M., Jonwutiwes K., Bellisie F. (2004). Gender differences in food choice: The contribution of health beliefs and dieting. Annals of Behavioral Medicine, 27(2), 107-116. DOI:10.1207/s15324796abm2702_5
WHO (1995). Physical status: the use and interpretation of anthropometry (Tech. Rep.). WHO Technical Report Series No. 854. Geneva: World Health Organization.
Wilson R., Abbott J.H. (2018). Age, period and cohort effects on body mass index in New Zealand, 1997-2038. Australian and New Zealand Journal of Public Health, 42(4), 396-402.
Wooldridge J.M. (2010). Econometric Analysis of Gross Section and Panel Data. Cambridge, Massachusetts; London, England: The MIT Press.
Yang Y., Land K.C. (2013). Age-period-cohort analysis: New models, methods, and empirical applications. CRC Press.
Yang Y., Land, K.C. (2006). A mixed models approach to the age-period-cohort analysis of repeated cross-section surveys, with an application to data on trends in verbal test scores. Sociological Methodology, 36(1), 75-97. DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-9531.2006.00175.x
Yi S.-W., Ohrr H., Shin S.-A., Yi J.-J. (2015). Sex-age-specific association of body mass index with all-cause mortality among 12.8 million Korean adults: a prospective cohort study. International Journal of Epidemiology, 44(5), 1696-1705. DOI: 10.1093/ije/dyv138
Yu E., Ley S., E Manson J., Willett W., Satija A., B Hu F., Stokes A. (2017). Weight history and all-cause and cause-specific mortality in three prospective cohort studies. Annals of Internal Medicine, 166(9), 613-620.
Zagorsky J.L. (2005). Health and wealth: The late-20th century obesity epidemic in the U.S. Economics and Human Biology, 3(2), 296-313.
Zhang L. (2015). How does age matter in the linkage between religious involvement and adult self-rated health? Advances in Applied Sociology, 5(4), 146-160. DOI: 10.4236/aasoci.2015.54014.
