Fertility at the municipal level in Russia, 2011-2019
Abstract
Insufficient data until recently have resulted in a lack of studies on population indicators for small areas in Russia. The article focuses on an analysis of fertility in 2,304 municipal level areas of Russia’s regions. The study is based on the Rosstat municipal data on the number of women of reproductive age by five-year age groups and the number of births. To eliminate the influence of age structure on the local (municipal) level, standardized birth rates were calculated on average for 2017 – 2019. The calculations were based on the method of indirect standardization, with Russia’s population chosen as a standard.
The variation in birth rates is decreasing both at regional and municipal levels due to the continuing decline in birth rates of the areas where its level is still high. However, estimates show that the ratio of the coefficient of variation at the municipal level to a similar indicator for the regions is increasing: the role of local factors is becoming more significant. When analysing spatial trends in the number of births, it was found that about half of the increase in the concentration of births in regional centres was the result of changes in the law regulating birth registration.
The ratio of the general and standardized birth rates is meant to assess the contribution of the age structure of women to the level of the birth rate. Due to the peculiarities of the age composition of the population, the maximum underestimate of the birth rate occurs in small rural municipalities in the Russian North and the Volga region. Differences in total fertility rate (TFR) estimates at the municipal level make it possible to estimate the concentration of high fertility. Only 10.6% of Russia’s population lives in territories where TFR estimates are higher than the replacement fertility level (2.15). Demographic modernisation has left almost no significant areas (in terms of population size) with high fertility rates, even in regions where its level is traditionally highest (Chechnya, Dagestan, Ingushetia, Tuva, Altai).
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