Cohort total fertility in demographic projections: a comparative analysis of the prospects for fertility changes in the countries of the former USSR
Abstract
The research paper analyzes the dynamics of total (completed) fertility of real female generations in the countries of the former USSR in the long-term demographic projections of the world’s leading international organizations.
In international practice, fertility projections are usually based on period indicators (of hypothetical/synthetic cohorts), but fluctuations in the timing of childbearing and changes in fertility patterns by the age of women and by the number of children born can significantly distort the picture of the common indicators of cross-sectional analysis. In this regard, it is important to consider how fertility changes in birth cohorts of women (in real generations), and how it can change in the future, based on certain assumptions about the expected changes in period age-specific fertility rates (for calendar periods of time).
As part of the study, it was confirmed that the demographic projections of all organizations can be divided into two groups, according to the fertility convergence models used: one group is the medium variants of IIASA, IHME and the World Bank/Eurostat projections, suggesting lower fertility, while the other group is the medium variant WPP-2022 of the UN Population Division, suggesting higher fertility. An intermediate position between these groups is represented by the projection of the US Census Bureau.
The paper shows that the projections of all organizations assume the convergence of fertility in hypothetical and birth cohorts both in the whole world and in the countries of the former USSR, but the UN medium variant demonstrates the discrepancy between models of fertility convergence between hypothetical and birth cohorts due to insufficient consideration of the evolution of the fertility patterns of women by age and by the number of children born. As this shortcoming is gradually eliminated, the projections of the UN Population Division are coming more into line with those of other projected fertility convergence models.
Downloads
References
Акимов А.В. (2008). 2300 год: Глобальные проблемы и Россия. М.
Андерсон Б. (2014). Прогнозирование низкой рождаемости: размышления по поводу правдоподобия и применения гипотез. Демографическое обозрение, 1(1), 58-105. https://doi.org/10.17323/demreview.v1i1.1827
Вишневский А.Г. (2005). Избранные демографические труды. Том 1: Демографическая теория и демографическая история. 2-ое издание Демографическая революция. М.
Соботка Т., Лутц В. (2011). Коэффициент суммарной рождаемости дает политикам дезориентирующие сигналы: не следует ли отказаться от использования этого показателя? Экономический журнал ВШЭ, 15(4), 444-472.
Anderson T., Kohler H.P. (2015). Low fertility, socioeconomic development, and gender equity. Population and development review, 41(3), 381-407. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1728-4457.2015.00065.x
Barakat B. (2017). Generalised count distributions for modelling parity. Demographic Research, 36(26), 745-758. https://doi.org/10.4054/DemRes.2017.36.26
Caldwell J. C., Caldwell B.K., Caldwell P., McDonald P., Schindlmayer T. (2006). Demographic transition theory. Dordrecht (The Netherlands): Springer.
Cheng P.R., Lin E.S. (2010). Completing incomplete cohort fertility schedules. Demographic Research, 23, 223-256. https://doi.org/10.4054/DemRes.2010.23.9
IHME (2020/2021). Population forecasting 2017. Retrieved from https://ghdx.healthdata.org/record/ihme-data/global-population-forecasts-2017-2100
IIASA (2018). Global population projections to 2100 year. Retrieved from http://dataexplorer.wittgensteincentre.org/wcde-v2/
IIASA (2022). Global population projections to 2100 year. Retrieved from http://dataexplorer.wittgensteincentre.org/wcde-v3/
Krätzig-Ahlert L. (2018). Der demografische Übergang hin zur optimalen Populationsdichte: Versuch einer Eingrenzung. Frankfurt/M. (Germany): R. G. Fischer Verlag.
Landry A. (1934). La révolution démographique. Études et essais sur les problèmes de la population. (Nouvelle édition, Paris: INED, 2020).
Lappegård T. (2020). Future fertility trends are shaped at the intersection of gender and social stratification. Vienna Yearbook of population research, 18, 43-78. https://doi.org/10.1553/populationyearbook2020.deb.04
Lee R.D., Carter L., Tuljapurkar S. (1995). Disaggregation in population forecasting: Do we need it? And how to do it simply. Mathematical Population Studies, 5(3), 217-234. https://doi.org/10.1080/08898489509525403
Lutz W. (1996). The future population of the World. What can we assume today? IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria.
Lutz W., Skirbekk V., Testa M.R. (2006). The Low Fertility Trap Hypothesis: Forces that may lead to further postponement and fewer births in Europe. Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, 4, 167-192. https://doi.org/10.1553/populationyearbook2006s167
Lutz W., Scherbov S., Gietel-Basten S. (2013). Very long range global population scenarios to 2300 and the implications of sustained low fertility. Demographic Research, 28(39), 1145-1166. https://doi.org/10.4054/DemRes.2013.28.39
Lutz W., Butz W.P., KC S. (Eds.) (2014). World Population and Human Capital in the Twenty-First Century. Oxford University Press.
Lutz W., Goujon A., KC S., Stonawski M., Stilianakis N. (2018). Demographic and Human Capital Scenarios for the 21st Century: 2018 assessment for 201 countries. Luxembourg (EUR 29113 EN, Publications Office of the European Union).
O'Neill B.C., Balk D., Brickman M., Ezra M. (2001). A guide to global population projections. Demographic research, 4, 203-288. A Guide to Global Population Projections. Demographic Research, 4(8), 203-288. https://doi.org/10.4054/DemRes.2001.4.8
Pelletier F. (2021). A sensitivity analysis of the projected median fertility trajectories in the WPP: towards a better understanding and reassessment of the Bayesian model. The United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division. Working Paper (May 2021). (UN DESA/POP/2021/TP/NO.1). https://desapublications.un.org/working-papers/sensitivity-analysis-projected-median-fertility-trajectories-world-population
Schmertmann C., Zagheni E., Goldstein J.R., Myrskylä M. (2014). Bayesian Forecasting of Cohort Fertility. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 109(506), 500-513. https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.2014.881738
United States Census Bureau (2021). International Database. Retrieved from https://www.census.gov/data-tools/demo/idb/
United Nations (1998). Long-Range World Population Projections: Based on the 1998 Revision. United Nations, New York. (ESA/P/WP.153)
United Nations (2004). World Population to 2300 year. (United Nations publication 2004, Sales No. E.04.XIII.11).
United Nations (2020). World Population Prospects. The 2019 Revision, vol. I: Comprehensive Tables. (United Nations publication, Sales No. E.20.XIII.7). Retrieved from https://population.un.org/wpp/Download/Archive/Standard/
United Nations (2022). World Population Prospects. The 2022 Revision, vol. I: Comprehensive Tables. (United Nations publication, Sales No. E.22.XIII.7). Retrieved from https://population.un.org/wpp/Download/
Strulik H., Vollmer S. (2015). The fertility transition around the world. Journal of Population Economics, 28, 31-44. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00148-013-0496-2
Vollset S.E., Goren E., Yuan C.W., Cao J., Smith A.E., Hsiao T., ... Murray C.J. (2020). Fertility, mortality, migration, and population scenarios for 195 countries and territories from 2017 to 2100: a forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study. The Lancet, 396(10258), 1285-1306. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30677-2
World Bank, Eurostat (2010). Long-Range World Population Projections to 2150 year. Retrieved from https://www.vsemirnyjbank.org/ru/access-to-information/request-submission
