Casualties in armed conflicts in the world: 1946-2015
Abstract
Direct and indirect losses resulting from major conflicts significantly upset the natural reproduction of a given population and give rise to large-scale waves of migration. Estimating these losses remains a persistent task for demographers. An important source of information regarding the number of casualties of combat and one-sided violence is annually updated databases on armed conflicts. The article discusses data sources and evaluations of mortality due to organized collective violence. The trends in the number of armed conflicts of various types and of the death toll resulting from them for the period 1946-2015 are analyzed for the whole world and for the major regions, as well as the impact of losses in armed conflict on the population and its age and sex composition.
From 1946 to 2015, the severity and bloodiness of armed conflicts declined, but since 2011 there has been a tendency towards an increase in the number of conflicts, as well as in the number of people killed in them. The number of internal armed conflicts, which then often develop into international ones with the participation of many countries, is increasing. So far, however, a comparison of the last quarter-century (the era after the Cold War), and the previous quarter-century indicates a reduction in the number of major armed conflicts involving the state and one-sided violence in the form of mass murder on ethnic and political grounds.
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References
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