Regional variation of fertility and its relation to the socio-economic development of Russian Regions
Abstract
The aim of this article is to analyze the regional variation of the total fertility rate (TFR) in Russia in
1995-2019 and to estimate the influence of socio-economic factors on its differences in 2012-2019. To evaluate the regional diversity of fertility, we calculated the coefficient of variation, the range, and the average for the TFR of the total, urban, and rural population. To find the relationship between fertility and socio-economic status, we used the value of the TFR, adjusted TFR, their absolute and relative increases and data from three integral RIA-ratings: ratings of the socio-economic status of regions, of regions by the level of family welfare, and of regions by housing affordability, as well as some other socio-economic indicators. To find this connection, we calculated Spearman's rank correlation. After assessing the dynamics of the coefficient of variation, it was found that regions, with rare temporary exceptions, are statistically homogeneous in terms of fertility (when assessing the indicators of the total and urban population), but for the rural population the differences in the value of the TFR increased significantly in the 2010s, which is partly explained by problems of statistical registration. While in the period from 2012 to 2015 a correlation was found between the dynamics of the TFR and socio-economic variables, with the largest growth of TFR being observed in regions with a high proportion of urban population and a high level of family well-being and socio-economic development, in 2016-2019 there occurred a decline in fertility in almost all regions, without any observed relationship with the determinants we selected.
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