Paradigms and oppositions of modern demography

Abstract

The paper aims to develop demographic theory by means of methodological reflection. Three principal oppositions of demographic theory are considered: the West and “the Rest”; the state and the individual; long-term and short-term trends. The paper argues for transforming demography from a mono-paradigmatic to a multi-paradigmatic science similar to sociology. Such conventional wisdoms of present-day demography as the withdrawal of the state from the demographic arena and the spread of the second demographic transition (SDT) beyond Western countries are challenged. The close negative correlation between life expectancy at birth and the percentage of extra-marital births in the regions of Russia is revealed. This shows that extra-marital fertility in Russia is caused not only by the SDT but also, to a great extent, by various social pathologies. In addition, the share of the world population involved in the SDT is decreasing due to rapid population growth in less developed countries and the slow pace of immigrant minorities’ integration into Western societies. In contrast to Greenhalgh, who employed Foucault’s concept of governmentality to show the Western roots of China’s one-child policy, the paper argues that different types of governmentality result in different types of population policy. It is stressed that demography should pay more attention to the singularities of the state’s role in diverse non-Western societies and to the effects that arise from the interaction of “SDT values” with non-Western institutions.

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