Armenians of southern Russia – modern geodemographic dynamics of regional communities (2010s – early 2020s)

Abstract

The article analyzes the features of the natural, migration, assimilation dynamics of the Armenians of southern Russia in the 2010s – early 2020s. Based on a comparative analysis of the parameters of natural reproduction of the population of Armenia, southern Russian regions and regional Armenian communities, it is concluded that for most communities, their resulting natural dynamics in the 2010s was a minimal increase or demographic equilibrium. In interregional interchange with other territories of Russia, part of the southern Russian Armenian communities in the 2010s mainly lost population (Astrakhan, Volgograd, Rostov regions, Kalmykia), while the other part gained it (Krasnodar Territory, Adygea, Crimea, Sevastopol). But in the international component of migration dynamics, all regional groups had a positive balance, which significantly exceeded the interregional component in size, providing a general influx of the Armenian population (most significant in the Krasnodar Territory, Rostov and Volgograd regions). The analysis of the dynamics of the assimilation process allows us to conclude that in the 2010s, in all Armenian communities in the South of Russia, there was demographic decline and replenishment associated with the spread of interethnic marriage and the quantitative growth of mixed offspring who had a complex identity. Thus, 24.6% of the decrease in the size of the Armenian population of southern Russia in the 2010s, recorded by the All-Russian 2020 (2021) population census, could not be the result of any of the factors of the demographic dynamics of regional communities. According to our calculation, the number of Armenians in southern Russia in 2010–2021 should have grown by 11.1–11.2% (only the community of Kalmykia could show a reduction). The main reason for this quantitative discrepancy is a significant underestimation of the Armenian population during the 2021 census. This underestimation depended very much on the type of settlement, with townspeople being most underestimated (according to official statistics, their number decreased by 32.3% in 2010–2021, and that of rural Armenians by 14.4%). The study leads to the conclusion that the use of ethno-demographic results of the 2021 census in research and administrative activities presupposes a preliminary analysis that allows us to assess the degree of their reliability (both for Russia as a whole and for each of its territories).