Russians in the republics of the North Caucasus: frontiers of geo-demographic retreat (the first half of the 21st century)
Abstract
The article analyzes the geo-demographic dynamics of the Russian population of the republics of the North Caucasus in the post-Soviet period, recording the pace of its reduction in each republic and revealing the central role of migration in this depopulation process. Currently, the Russian population of the North Caucasus has returned to the level of the mid-1930s. The Republic of Chechnya and Ingushetia are now almost completely devoid of Russians, and Dagestan has lost a significant part of its Russian population. Demographic losses in other republics of the region have not been as great. However, a rapidly decreasing number of Russians has become a steady trend of the entire North Caucasus. In order to determine the corridor of most likely dynamics of the Russian population in the region for the period until 2050, a series of calculations was carried out. It was established that by 2030 the number of Russians in the North Caucasus will be reduced to 690-780 thousand people, and by mid-century – to 490-700 thousand.
Another significant threat will be the deterioration of the age structure of the local Russian population, which could lead to its demographic "collapse" in the 2060-2070-ies.
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References
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