Fertility in the republic of Moldova: European trends and national particularities
Abstract
Currently, the official statistics of the Republic of Moldova, based on de jure population data that include citizens who are absent 12 months or more from the country, give underestimated total fertility rates, which has led to the country’s being classified as among those with lowest-low fertility.
Based on de facto population data and the results of the Population and Housing Census of 2014, the level and main trends in fertility dynamics are analyzed from a period and cohort perspective. The main goal of the study is to trace to what level the fertility rate has decreased in the Republic of Moldova and whether it can be considered a country with low or lowest-low fertility.
The results of the research show that the transformation of fertility is taking place according to the general model specific to most countries that have completed or are in the process of fertility transition, but is characterized by a slower pace. In the last few years, the period fertility rate has become fixed at 1.6-1.65 births per woman, whereas for cohorts that have completed or are at the end of the reproductive period it is 1.9-2.0 births per woman. Even for the youngest generations, who had reached the age of 35 at the time of the census (2014), the average number of children born exceeded 1.7. Although the average number of births was decreasing by the end of the reproductive period in the intercensal period, the average number of births per women at the age of 50 was 2.1, and the proportion of those who have not given birth to any child remains relatively low.
Based on the results of the study, the author concludes that the Republic of Moldova does not belong to the group of countries with low or lowest-low fertility, and that the preservation of a higher fertility than in other countries is determined by the predominance of the rural population in the general structure.
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References
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