The epidemiologic transition theory revisited thirty years later
Abstract
The Epidemiologic Transition Theory is based on the systematic application of epidemiologic inference to changing health, mortality, survival and fertility over time and place linked to their socioeconomic, environmental, lifestyle, demographic, health care and technological determinants and/or correlates in different societal settings. Surely, profound epidemiological changes have been taking place in the world over the last several centuries, albeit at a varying pace and take-off time in different populations. This essay revisits the original 1971 presentation of the Epidemiologic Transition Theory, moving from a three-stage/three-model formulation to a five stage/five-model formulation.
In particular, the relative role of mortality and fertility experience in the transition dynamics is discussed under Proposition 1, while the stages of epidemiologic transition are described under Proposition 2. Moreover, the different kinds of inequities are noted during the transition and are captured under Proposition 3. Transition models characterizing the dynamics, timing of the transition take-off and subsequent changes in different country groups are discussed in Proposition 4. The paper concludes with a look at the possible health scenario in the fifth stage of transition and beyond.
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