The effect of migration on population size and age composition in municipalities of different types in Bashkortostan
Abstract
The paper assesses the impact of migration on the size and age structure of the population of different municipalities in the Republic of Bashkortostan. We distinguish «core municipalities» (industrial and education centers, which are likely to attract human capital); municipalities adjacent to the core municipalities (where the population is growing due to the proximity to the core, suburban territories); and peripheral areas, where the migration outflow within the Ufa and South Bashkortostan agglomerations is irreversible. At the first stage, a retrospective prediction was made for the selected types of municipalities for the period 2008-2018. First of all, suburban territories are likely to gain the most from current migration trends even in comparison with the core municipalities. This causes an increase in population size in almost all age groups, primarily among the population of pre-retirement and retirement age. At the second stage, we carried out the population projection of the selected types of municipalities for the period up to 2029. Four migration scenarios are considered. The results show that a population increase in core municipalities and suburban areas could only persist in the case of permanent migration inflow from peripheral areas. However, this inflow would not change the age structure of the population in core and suburban municipalities dramatically. At the same time, the peripheral areas would continue to decrease in population and would significantly «age». Thus, the development of core and suburban territories is associated with a loss of demographic potential in peripheral areas. As a result, a slowdown in population growth in core territories and an increase in intraregional differentiation are expected.
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References
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