Pedestrian mortality in Russia: a continuous decline over the last 25 years?
Abstract
Using different data sources (HCoD, IRTAD, UNECE statistical database, police data), our research shows that the significant excess of pedestrian mortality over vehicle occupant mortality in 1988-1999 in Russia according to RusFMD is an abnormal phenomenon that most likely never occurred. Thus, in order to assess levels of mortality by road user types, it is preferable to use police data, according to which, in Russia, pedestrian mortality almost never exceeds that of vehicle occupants. The steady decline in pedestrian mortality began in 2003, not in 1993, as vital statistics show. In 2008, the crude death rate of pedestrians reached the minimum value of the Soviet period. Vehicle occupant mortality, after significant fluctuations, dropped to the level of the early 1970s only in 2015-2017. The use of vital statistics is possible if it is necessary to differentiate road traffic mortality by sex, age, and type of settlements. Categorization by road user types should be done with caution, using the following data sources: HCoD data from 1988 and RusFMD data from 1970 to 1988 and after 1999. It is suggested that difficulties in analyzing long-term mortality by category of road users based on vital statistics may occur in post-Soviet countries, where the Soviet abridged classification of causes of death was used. The prevalence of unspecified V-codes should also be considered.
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References
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