Modeling the risk of becoming disabled in Russia: an assessment based on the Russian longitudinal monitoring survey
Abstract
The article is devoted to modeling disability risk in Russia based on microdata. The need to assess the risk of becoming disabled is due to the significant scale of disabilities in Russia and their differentiation for socio-demographic groups of the population. The aim of the study is to determine the factors influencing the risk of disability in Russia. The difficulty of assessing the risk of disability is associated with the lack of representative monitoring surveys of disability, as well as data on mortality of persons with disabilities, including by age groups and diseases. To model the risk of becoming disabled, data from the Russian Monitoring of Economy and Health (NRU HSE) were used for the period from 2003 to 2018. The sample size was more than 125 thousand respondents, of which 519 individuals received a disability. Based on Cox regressions, a series of survival models was built to assess the influence of socio-economic factors on the risk of a healthy person becoming disabled. The IBMSPSS 25.0 software package was used for the calculations. The most noticeable risk of disability increases for men and women after the age of 50 and reaches 3-4% by the age of 60. There are differences in the risk of becoming disabled for men and women, as well as depending on the level of education, marital status and area of residence. The presence of a significant excess of the risk of becoming disabled among representatives of certain professional groups was revealed. The highest risk of becoming disabled in group 2 is observed among specialists of the highest and average qualifications, office workers and specialists in working with clients, workers in the trade and services sector, as well as among qualified workers in agriculture, forestry and fishing. Differentiation of the risk of becoming disabled in old age is due to accumulated health defects, in a significant part of cases those associated with professional activities, as well as to varying degrees of access to medical services and disability information.
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