The central mechanism of the demographic transition
Abstract
The article focuses on the key mechanism of the demographic transition - the determination of the birth rate by child mortality. The transformation of fertility-maximizing behavior into rational goal-setting and the consequent reduction in ideal family size was made possible by the radically increased predictability of family size as child survival improved.
Regression of the total fertility rate on the infant mortality rate for all developing countries (with a population greater than one million in 2020) over the period 1970–2020. provides national coefficients of determination in the range from 0.67 to 0.97. The corresponding graphs are linear in the main phase of the transition and non-linear in the initial and final phases.
The nonlinearity of the initial phase is due to the fact that the birth rate begins to decline only after the death rate reaches a certain threshold, beyond which its decline is felt as significant and reliable. In the main phase of the transition, the relationship between fertility and child mortality is linear and close. At the final stage of the transition, infant mortality ceases to be the main factor of fertility decline, giving way to urbanization, spread of education, and emancipation of women.
The forms of functions that describe the dependence of fertility on child mortality are generally universal, but nevertheless international differences are large enough to speak of transregional patterns. Whether a country belongs to one or another pattern partly depends on what phase of the demographic transition the country was in during the period under review.
A comparison of the demographic and socioeconomic profiles of Bangladesh and Nigeria shows how a resource-poor country with a progressive social policy and an effective family planning program has been able to complete the demographic transition, while a resource-rich but disorganized country has bogged down in its initial phase. However, in order to avoid a runaway population growth towards half a billion by the end of the century, even according to the low United Nations hypothesis, Nigeria must embark on a super-rapid demographic transition of the type experienced by China, Bangladesh, Algeria, and Iran.
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