Доверительное оценивание демографических коэффициентов на примере коэффициентов смертности
Аннотация
В большинстве случаев демографы игнорируют стохастическую природу демографических коэффициентов, в том числе коэффициентов смертности. Но рост интереса к смертности и долголетию малых групп населения требует надежных решений для доверительного оценивания соответствующих показателей смертности. В статье предлагается формула апостериорного распределения коэффициента смертности в однородной группе населения. На ее основе строится доверительная область значений коэффициента смертности. Методами стохастической симуляции строятся доверительные области для кумулятивных характеристик смертности, в том числе для продолжительности жизни.
Скачивания
Литература
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