Parity transition in fertility in a long historical perspective
Abstract
A study of the changes in the parity distribution of women over a century and a half allows us to suggest the existence of a parity transition in fertility, covering the first and second demographic transitions. We expect that the variation of heterogeneity of fertility (which measures the inequality in final parity distribution) over time is N-shaped: initial growth (stage 1), subsequent decrease (stage 2), and final growth in a situation of low and very low fertility (stage 3).
The first stage of the parity transition is mainly caused by the decline in high-order births and gradual transition to a small family, which leads to an increase in the heterogeneity of women's distribution by birth order. Further, at the second stage of the parity transition, the heterogeneity usually decreases, because, on the one hand, involuntary childlessness becomes less common, and on the other hand, the final decline in high-order births takes place. The dynamics of fertility heterogeneity at the third stage of the transition is determined mainly by an increase in childlessness, caused by the transformation of individual attitudes towards marriage and childbearing typical for the second demographic transition.
We study the dynamics of heterogeneity in final fertility measured using the Gini reproduction coefficient computed on the data from three sources: IPUMSI census data, the Human Fertility Database (HFD), and the Cohort, Fertility and Education Database (CFE). We provide empirical evidence for the existence of different stages of parity transition for 16 countries at various stages of economic development. The use of historical U.S. census data and fertility data from Africa, among others, provides insights into the dynamics of fertility characteristics at earlier stages of demographic development.
The empirical evidence presented in this paper provides support for the existence of a parity transition in fertility.
Downloads
References
Вишневский А.Г. (Ред.) (2006). Демографическая модернизация России, 1900–2000. М.: Новое изд-во.
Калабихина И.Е., Кузнецова П.О. (2023). Неоднородность населения по числу рожденных детей: существует ли «порядковый переход»? Мониторинг общественного мнения: экономические и социальные перемены, 2 (174), 57-81. https://www.doi.org/10.14515/monitoring.2023.2.2362
Avdeev A. (2003). On the way to one-child family: Are we beyond the point of no return? Some considerations concerning the fertility decrease in Russia. In Population of Central and Eastern Europe: Challenges and Opportunities, European Population Conference, Warsaw, 26-30. https://dmo.econ.msu.ru/Biblio/Docs/2003_Warsaw_Avdeev.pdf
Barakat B. (2014). Revisiting the history of fertility concentration and its measurement. Vienna Institute of Demography Working Papers, 1. https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/97017/1/784170290.pdf
Barkalov N.B. (1999). The fertility decline in Russia, 1989-1996: a view with period parity-progression ratios. Genus, 11-60. https://www.jstor.org/stable/29788609
Barkalov N.B. (2005). Changes in the quantum of Russian fertility during the 1980s and early 1990s. Population and Development Review, 31(3), 545-556. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1728-4457.2005.00084.x
Breton D., Prioux F. (2009). The one-child family: France in the European context. Demographic research, 20, 657-692. https://www.jstor.org/stable/26349331
Caldwell J.C. (2008). Three fertility compromises and two transitions. Population research and policy review, 27, 427-446. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11113-008-9071-z
CFE (2024). Cohort Fertility and Education Database. https://www.eurrep.org/database/database/ (данные загружены 02.04.2024).
Devolder D., Reeve P. (2018). Relationships between total and birth order-specific fertility indicators: Application to Spain for the 1898-1970 cohorts. Population, 73(1), 61-88. https://doi.org/10.3917/popu.1801.0063
Hellstrand J., Nisén J., Myrskylä M. (2020). All-time low period fertility in Finland: Demographic drivers, tempo effects, and cohort implications. Population Studies, 74(3), 315-329. https://doi.org/10.1080/00324728.2020.1750677
HFD (2024). Human Fertility Database. https://www.humanfertility.org/ (данные загружены 01.03.2024).
Hwang J. (2023). Later, fewer, none? Recent trends in cohort fertility in South Korea. Demography, 60(2), 563-582. https://doi.org/10.1215/00703370-10585316
IPUMSI (2024). Integrated Public Use Microseries International. https://international.ipums.org/international/ (данные загружены 15.04.2024).
Jasilioniene A., Jdanov D.A., Sobotka T., Andreev E.M., Zeman K., Shkolnikov V.M., Goldstein J.R., Philipov D., Rodriguez G. (2015). Methods protocol for the human fertility database. Rostock: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research.
Kreyenfeld M., Konietzka D. (2017). Childlessness in Europe: Contexts, causes, and consequences. Springer Nature, 367. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-44667-7
Landry A. (1987). Adolphe Landry on the demographic revolution. Population and Development Review, 13(4), 731-740. https://doi.org/10.2307/1973031
Lesthaeghe R. (1995). The second demographic transition in Western countries: An interpretation. https://scholar.google.com/scholar?oi=bibs&cluster=17875356408399137122&btnI=1&hl=en
Lesthaeghe R. (2010). The unfolding story of the second demographic transition. Population and development review, 36(2), 211-251. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1728-4457.2010.00328.x
Lesthaeghe R., Van de Kaa D.J. (1986). Twee demografische transities. Bevolking: groei en krimp, 9-24.
Lichter D.T., Wooton J. (2005). The concentration of reproduction in low-fertility societies: The case of the United States. In The New Population Problem (pp. 225-236). Psychology Press. https://doi.org/10.4324/9781410612854
Notestein F.W. (1945). Population: The long view. In: T. Schultz (Ed.), Food for the World, 36-57.
Philipov D. (2017). Rising Dispersion in Age at First Birth in Europe: Is it Related to Fertility Postponement? Vienna Institute of Demography, Austrian Academy of Sciences VID Working Paper, 11/2017, 1-28. https://doi.org/10.1553/0x003ccff6
Rotkirch A., Temkina A. (1997). Soviet Gender Contracts and Their Shifts in Contemporary Russia Idantutkimus, 4, 6-24.
Rowland D.T. (2007). Historical trends in childlessness. Journal of family Issues, 28(10), 1311-1337. https://doi.org/10.1177/0192513X07303823
Shkolnikov V.M., Andreev E.M., Houle R., Vaupel J.W. (2007). The concentration of reproduction in cohorts of women in Europe and the United States. Population and Development Review, 33(1), 67-99. https://www.jstor.org/stable/25434585
Yoo S.H. (2015). Convergence towards diversity?: cohort analysis of fertility and family formation in South Korea. Arizona State University. https://keep.lib.asu.edu/system/files/c7/131900/Yoo_asu_0010E_14988.pdf
Zeman K., Beaujouan É., Brzozowska Z., Sobotka T. (2018). Cohort fertility decline in low fertility countries: Decomposition using parity progression ratios. Demographic research, 38, 651-690. https://dx.doi.org/10.4054/DemRes.2018.38.25
Zeman K., Brzozowska Z., Sobotka T., Beaujouan É., Matysiak A. (2014). Cohort fertility and education database. Methods protocol. https://www.eurrep.org/wp-content/uploads/CFE_Database_Methods_Protocol_2017-09-20.pdf
