The results of the 2021 All-Russian Population Census in the light of civil registration statistics and censuses of previous years

Abstract

The population census of the 2020 round was held in Russia in October-November 2021 and had a number of differences from the 2002 and 2010 censuses: (1) the 2021 Census was conducted during the COVID-19 pandemic; (2) for the first time ever, Russians could fill out electronic census forms on the Internet;
(3) the critical moment of the census was not the first day of the census; (4) the census period was one month. In addition, public opinion polls showed a high proportion of the population that did not participate in the census. Using the published results of the 2021 Census, we assess the impact of the 2020 Census features on the accuracy of its results, as well as answer the question of whether it is possible and necessary to adjust demographic indicators for 2011-2021. Our analysis shows that information about at least one in six residents of Russia was taken from administrative sources, leading to large discrepancies in the population in all sex and age groups based on the 2021 census and current population estimates. This discrepancy is most pronounced among children
(ages 0-14 years) and the elderly (80 years and older), which indicates that there are problems in administrative data for these ages. In general, we believe that the accuracy of the 2021 Census is the same as for the 2002 and 2010 censuses. However, the results of the 2021 Census should be adjusted.